THE POTATO QUAEANTINE. 
17 
a year ago and 16| cents higher than three years ago, but 11§ cents lower than two 
years ago, when potatoes on January 1 were selling for 77J cents per bushel and the 
supply was unusually short, owing to the drought of the previous year. 
Present conditions do not seem to forecast material, if any, advance in prices in 
the important producing States this year. In 1911, when supplies were but mod- 
erately larger than now, and in 1913 the price movement after January 1 was down- 
ward instead of upward. The only other factor which may enter to change the 
experience of 1911 and 1913 is the somewhat different distribution of the crop which 
exists this year. 
Southern growers who plant in the spring for the early market would seem to be 
justified, from present conditions, in putting out a normal acreage, but should not 
expect the big advance in prices which prevailed two years ago. 
The estimates indicate that about 42.1 per cent of the marketable supply of pota- 
toes of the 1913 crop remained in the hands of farmers and 9.5 per cent in the hands 
of dealers on January 1 in the important potato-growing States. These figures com- 
pare with 39.8 and 9.8 per cent similarly estimated a year ago, 33.1 and 8.6 per cent 
two years ago, 40.2 and 10.9 per cent three years ago, and 41.2 and 9.9 per cent four 
years ago. If, for the purpose of comparison, these percentages were applied to the 
estimates of total production, it would show total stocks of 123,000,000 bushels on Jan- 
uary 1, 1914 (in the 19 States analyzed below), compared with 150,000,000 a year ago, 
91,000,000 two years ago, 133,000,000 three years ago, and 142,000,000 four years ago. 
These figures would indicate that the quantity to be carried toward the close of the 
season will not be sufficient to cause depressed prices, as was the case particularly 
four years ago (in some States last year, also), nor, on the other hand, will they be so 
scant as to cause such high prices as prevailed in the spring of 1912. 
To show the relation between supplies and prices, the following tabulation is 
given, showing for the past five years the production, stock on hand January 1, and 
the prices paid to producers on December 1 and the following March 1 in 19 impor- 
tant potato-growing States: 
Total pro- 
duction 
(bushels). 
Stocks on Jan. 1. 
Farm 
prices. 
Years. 
In growers' hands. 
In dealers' hands. 
Total 
(bushels). 
Dec. 1. 
Per 
cent 
of crop. 
Bushels. 
Per 
cent 
of crop. 
Bushels. 
Mar. 1. 
1913-14 
238,946,000 
304,126,000 
217,532,000 
261,141,000 
298,308,000 
42.1 
39.8 
33.1 
40.2 
41.2 
100,495,000 
119,678,000 
72,072,000 
104,954,000 
122 997,000 
9.5 
9.8 
8.6 
10.9 
9.9 
22,797,000 
30,167,000 
18,706,000 
28,463,000 
29,384,000 
123,292,000 
149,845,000 
90,778,000 
133,417,000 
142,381,000 
66.2 
48.6 
77.6 
49.5 
50.0 
1912-13 
47.7 
1911-12 
101.4 
1910-11 
46.9 
1909-10 
47.3 
A PROGRESSIVE POLICY NEEDED. 
The present situation emphasizes the fact that potato production 
in the United States is not on a sound economic basis. We have an 
almost regular alternation of seasons when more potatoes are pro- 
duced than can be consumed and prices fall below production costs 
in many instances and of seasons of short crops when prices are unrea- 
sonably high to the consumer. This condition is reflected in the 
imports and exports, as shown in figure 1. 
