MARKETING GRAIN AT COUNTRY POINTS. 39 
_- INTERPRETING MARKET INFORMATION AND SELLING FOR FUTURE DELIVERY. 
The dealer receives a vast amount of market information from 
many sources, and to market his grain advantageously he must be 
able to interpret these data shrewdly. He must decide whether to 
sell his grain on track, to arrive, or consign it. If he consigns or 
holds it in storage and hedges against his holdings by selling an equal 
quantity for future delivery, he must know where to hedge to best 
advantage, and assume the risk of variations between the cash and 
future prices. | 
Being constantly in contact with the markets he has ever before 
him the temptation to speculate, either by (1) selling cash grain 
for future delivery before it 1s purchased, (2) by holding his pur- 
chases without hedging against them, or (3) by dealing directly on 
the future market. It is only natural that a man who is daily 
studying market conditions should sometimes feel assured of his 
ability to forecast the future trend of price fluctuations and to specu- 
late with a certain degree of intelligent judgment, but in most cases 
he discovers ultimately that his knowledge has its limitation. Con- 
_ ditions arise of whose possibility he was entirely unaware, or has 
failed to consider, which change the entire trend of prices. When 
cash grain has been sold he must depend on the farmer’s delivery 
to fill the sale. If the market is-‘rising, farmers naturally withhold 
their grain in the hope of obtaining better prices. The condition 
of the roads; stress of farm work, and other circumstances, may 
militate against deliveries. Should the speculator hold his grain 
at the elevator some difficulty may be encountered in disposing of 
it when desired, as mills and other users of cash grain are not in- 
clined to buy freely on a rising market; while if the grain is 
consigned to a general market there may be a serious decline before 
its arrival. 
RISKS IN STORING GRAIN. 
The risks incident to storing grain for farmers, contracting with 
them for future delivery, and advancing money on grain purchased 
or in store have already been discussed. ‘The dealer must also 
assume the risk of a car shortage rendering it impossible to ship 
grain at the desired moment, and possibly compelling him to cease 
buying because his elevator is filled to capacity. Possibility of 
deterioration of the grain in storage while awaiting the arrival of 
cars must be borne in mind. In case the dealer sells grain for future 
shipments he incurs the risk of buyers failing to fulfill the terms 
of their contracts. When the market has declined buyers are some- 
times financially unable to take the grain, while others seek oppor- 
tunity to avoid fulfilling their part of the contract by taking advan- 
__ tage of some technical point in its wording. 
