CORN AND HOG CORRELATIONS 23 
and corn situation, leaving 90 to 95 per cent determination by out- 
standing causes, of which the weather is undoubtedly the most im- 
portant. 
INFLUENCES OF REMOTE CAUSES ON CORN CROP 
The correlations between the corn crop and preceding conditions 
(Table 3) are in general of the kind to be expected from the correla- 
tions involving acreage and yield. The slight negative correlation 
between the crops of successive years ( — 0.20) is of this kind. There 
are positive correlations with the pork production of the preceding 
year ( + 0.28 summer, +0.27 winter) in harmony with the positive 
correlations shown by .both acreage and yield. Altogether, however, 
the corn crop is not determined more than about 10 per cent by the 
hog situation and perhaps 4 per cent more by the preceding corn 
crop. Practically, the corn crop can be treated as an independent 
variable in its relations to the hog situation of the same and later 
years. 
THE DECEMBER CORN PRICE 
The annual fluctuations in the price of corn naturally show a close 
negative correlation with those of the crop. (Table 3) A big crop 
means cheap corn, whereas, conversely, a small crop means high- 
priced corn. The relations to acreage and yield are practically 
those due to their relation to crop. There is 64 per cent determina- 
tion by crop, and exactly the same figure for determination by acre- 
age and yield combined, 
It might be expected that the price of corn would be affected by 
the number of hogs on hand to be fed, since hog feeding constitutes 
the most important variable factor in the demand for corn. Actually, 
however, the indications of such an effect are not very impressive. 
The correlation between the December price of corn and the hog 
pack of the same winter is only +0.14. There are, it is true, fairly 
important correlations with the live weight ( — 0.43) and pack ( + 0.31) 
of the preceding summer. These are doubtless due to some extent 
to the effect of an excess of hogs in exhausting the reserves of corn 
and thus stimulating the price of the coming crop. On the other 
hand, the fact that there are analogous correlations (with signs 
reversed of course) between the corn crop and these hog variables 
(live weight +0.18, pack —0.22) which can not be explained in the 
above way, indicates that this explanation is not complete. It is 
probable that these effects are due at least as much to effects of the 
corn crop on the hog situation as to effects of the hog situation on the 
corn price. The summer live weight and pack (season ending 
October 31) precede the December corn price in time, but the latter 
is representative of the change in corn price which begins as soon as 
there is knowledge of the size of the crop. A small crop and high- 
priced corn would tend to cause a premature marketing of light- 
weight hogs and thus result in correlations of the observed kind. 
There is practically no correlation between corn prices of succes- 
sive years ( + 0.08) or two years apart ( — 0.11) and, as we have just 
seen, there can be only a slight relation to the hog situation in which 
the latter can be interpreted as the cause. Thus the corn price can 
be dealt with in relation to the hog situation as an independent 
variable without any serious error. 
