SPECULATIVE TRANSACTIONS IN 1926 MAY WHEAT FUTURE 83 
TaBLeE 5.—The number of days on which the net of indindual purchases and sales 
of 500,000 bushels or over and the futures price moved in the same direction, for 
wheat, for eight large speculators, all futures combined, from April 18, 1925, 
to May 29, 1926 
Days on which 
Total Days on which price and net of 
price and net 
number : ie of purchases and 
Net of purchases and sales - of obpurghaves and sales moved in 
days same direction opposite — direc- 
tion 
Number | Per cent | Number | Per cent 
500.000 bushel sion Over] een ae a nn a eee 219 156 71 29 
1000000; bushels) on Oven = a2 esas See ee ee 154 119 77 | 35 23 
2.000000 ppUSHel SOT OVCle =a ae oe ee ee 75 62 83 13 17 
Si000 000 bushelsvorOvers= 2208) oie te ee 36 31 86 5 14 
47000 COOsDUSMEl STO) OVC lees ee ee 22 19 86 3 14 
57000000) Dusel ston OMe re eee eee ea 14 12 86 2 14 
6:000;G00)} bushels or Overs so 2s ee ees 9 8 89 1 11 
EOOOOOOF DUS HEISTORAO VC Te ete: 4 4 LUGO) Aieshegimeese geo pa ae 
§;000/000) bushels or Over== 522 fern Se 3 3 100s (eae eames Ne Ni et 
S000 O00 House] Stor Over a ee ee e 1 1 TOO te eS ee eee ee 
Summarized, the data show: (1) That the larger the net pur- 
chase or the net sale made within the limits of one trading day, the 
more certain it becomes that the price will move in the same direction; 
(2) when net trades exceed the 2,000,000 bushel limit, the chances are 
not less than 4 to 1 that the price will move in the same direction as 
the net purchase or sale— if a purchase, upward, if a sale downward. 
QUANTITATIVE RELATION OF LARGE NET TRADES TO NET PRICE CHANGES 
In the preceding comparison, no attempt was made to measure 
quantitatively the effect of the size of the trade upon the net change 
in price. To answer this, account must be taken not only of the days 
on which net trades move in the same (or opposite) direction, but the 
extent to which the movements correspond. 
Table 3 shows that while trades and price usually move in the same 
direction, the amount of the price movement corresponding to each 
net trade varies quite widely for trades of approximately the same 
size. Also for the period covered, April 18, 1925, to May 29, 1926, 
net trades of at least 500,000 bushels (when all futures are combined) 
occurred on only 65 per cent of the days. On the other 35 per cent no 
large net trades were made, yet price changes occurred on those days 
and on many of them changes of considerable size. 
The answer to the question of the quantitative effect of trades upon 
price is to be found in the fact that while unusually large trades affect 
the futures price, there are also other and important price factors at 
work. Actual supplies at terminal and country points, estimates of 
on-coming crops, reports and opinions on weather conditions, and 
foreign and domestic demand all play an important part in deter- 
mining the price. To make therefore a close quantitative comparison 
between net trades and price, allowance must be made for the other 
important market factors. Having taken some account of the other 
important influences, it is believed that a closer quantitative relation- 
ship between price and net trades would result. 
To illustrate the force of other market factors upon price, two 
selected dates are here reviewed. For the period covered in the pre- 
ceding analysis—from April 18, 1925, to May 29, 1926—there were 
