18 BULLETIN 1479, U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE _ 
Trader No. 1 accumulated the largest long line of the group, reach- 
ing at its maximun 11,125,000 bushels on December 7. He also is 
the outstanding trader of the group in consistently maintaining a 
market position indicative of a fixed opinion as to values. 
The operations of trader No. 2 stand out as the most spectacular 
of the group. His trading is characterized by the extremes reached in 
market position on both the long and the short side. At least 12 
times he apparently changed his opinion regarding the future course 
of prices. On three of these occasions a position of over 8,000,000 
bushels was reached and on three others of over 5,000,000 bushels. 
If one assumes that this trader was attempting to anticipate price 
changes warranted by economic conditions, his operations indicate 
that he seldom had a settled opinon regarding the future course of 
prices. The erratic course of his trading strongly suggests instead 
that his object was not so much to anticipate changes in price levels 
as to attempt to direct the course of prices. 
The operations of the other traders of the group are not individu- 
ally of sufficient size to need separate comment. For this particular 
future, none of the remaining six reached a position of 5,000,000 
bushels; only one reached the 4,000,000; and only two the 3,000,000 
bushel level. 
A common characteristic of all of the eight traders is that the num- 
ber of days used in accumulating a position long or short was con- 
siderably more than the number of days used in liquidating or in 
eovering. This can be seen from Figure 6 by observing the more 
eradual slope of each curve in moving away from the zero position 
than inreturning. For traders No. 1 and No. 2 the ratio of accumula- 
tion to liquidation is 2 to 1; for the other six the ratio is roughly 3 to 2. 
This method of trading may in some instances be due to forced liqui- 
dation or to cover ing. In most cases, however, it is based upon a theory 
of larger profits to the trader. In accumulating a position either 
long or short the trader does not need to maintain the degree of 
secrecy that is necessary in liquidating or in covering and especially 
after a considerable fraction of his ‘‘line” has been acquired. If in 
accumulating a long line comcident with an upward movement in 
price a wide follwing of small amateurs are encouraged to enter the 
market, the price will continue upward and sufficient buying strength 
added to permit the trader to liquidate with a minimum break or 
even an advance in price. Liquidation must be accomplished quickly 
and secretly, however, or the following built up while accumulating a 
‘“‘line’’? may also liquidate, and unusual price breaks result. 
NET TRADES COMPARED WITH NET PRICE CHANGES 
THE LARGE NET TRADES IN THE 1926 MAY WHEAT FUTURE 
Thus far the net position long or short of the eight largest specula- 
tors on the Chicago Board of Trade has been compared with the 
futures price. In this comparison account was taken not only of the 
changes occurring each day in trading but also of the position long or 
short already accummulated. In the present section the net pur- 
chases or sales on individual days will be analyzed in their separate 
relation to net price changes. In so doing no account will be taken 
of a position long or short previously attained. 
During the life of the 1926 May wheat future there were 33 days 
on which the eight speculators being considered bought or sold net at 
