§ BULLETIN 1479, U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 
a high of $1.8544 on December 29, the average closing price on the 
latter day being $1.8414 
The net long position of the eight then declined from a secondary 
high of 20,785,000 bushels on January 4 to a low of 1,345,000 bushels 
on January 21. The closing price during this downdard swing 
declined from a secondary high closing of $1.8234 on January 4 
to a low closing of $1.705¢ on January 23. The position and price 
then moved upward to a top for both on February 3, the position 
of the traders increasing to 19,145,000 bushels long and the closing 
price to $1.7724. Swinging down again, the position of the traders 
reached a low of 4,400,000 bushels short on March 1, while the price 
reached a low of $1.58 on March 8. Another peak in position of 
11,590,000 bushels long was reached on March 18, with the closing 
price for the same date at a peak of $1.663¢. Declining again the 
net position moved to a low position of 3,365,000 bushels short 
on March 24, with a corresponding low closing price of $1.543%. 
Beyond this date the movements in position are smaller and show 
less relation to price changes. 
Within the limits of each of these net position and price swings, 
daily net changes of large proportions occurred. In a subsequent 
section reference is made to the fact that for this particular future 
and for the eight traders shown there were 33 days on which net 
trades of 2,000,000 bushels or over were made, and that on 30 of 
these days the price moved in the same direction as the net trade. 
These days may be identified on Figure 4 and a direct comparison 
made with the net price changes.? The largest change occurred 
on March 1, when a net of over 9,000,000 bushels was sold, the price 
deciining 654 cents. 
The movements in net position for the 1926 May future were at 
most points coincident in time with those of price. In this respect 
the operations of the large speculators differed in their effect upon 
the price in the 1926 future from that of the 1925 future. In the 
earlier year during the major movement which occurred in January, 
the price change lageed behind the change in the combined net 
position approximately two weeks. For the smaller movement in 
February the price lagged approximately one week. For movements 
in March and April the price change was approximately coincident 
im time with the changes in position. As pointed out in the preceding 
section, this difference between the two years was due to a much 
smaller public participation in the futures market during the winter 
of 1925-26 than during the previous winter. During the winter 
of 1924-25, the public was in part “shaken out” during February 
and completely so during the early part of March. 
Whether the public is in the market or not to any unusual degree 
is an important pomt in determining the influence which large pro- 
fessional speculators can have upon price. Judged from the effect 
during these two years, prices will not move to as great extremes nor 
break as erratically when the public is not in the market to an unusual 
extent as when the public is participating heavily. Although the 
fluctuations in price are not as extreme in the absence of heavy 
participation by the public, the effect of large speculative operations 
2 These 33 net trades are givenin Table 1. ‘Their size will not check exactly with the changes in net 
position shown in Figure 4 for the reason that in determining net trades of 2,000,000 bushels or over for the 
eight traders only those net purchases or sales were included which amounted to 500,600 bushels or more. 
The net position changes are sufficiently close however to be easily identified. 
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