RELATION OF LAND INCOME TO LAND VALUE. 
47 
Table 16. — Expected and actual returns from 1910 to 1920 on investment* made in 
Iowa in 1910 (based on gross cash rev 
[Average value of Iowa land in 1910= 
= *96 per acre.] 
Cash r< 
from 1910 
to 1920 as 
Actual 
antici- 
cash 
Antici- 
Aetna! 
rate of 
return. 
Year. 
pated in 
1910 (an- 
rent 1 
from 
pated 
rate of 
ticipated 
1910 to 
return. 
increase 
1920. 
of 7 cents 
a year). 
Dollars. 
Dollars. 
Per cent. 
PfT CfTtt. 
1910 
4.28 
4.35 
4.42 
4.49 
4.56 
4.63 
4.28 
4.40 
4.59 
4.65 
5. 03 
5.34 
4.5 
4.5 
4.6 
4.7 
4.7 
18 
4 5 
1911 
4 fi 
1912 
4 a 
1913 
4 - 
1914 
5 ! 
1915 
5.6 
1916 
4.70 
5.66 
4.9 
5.9 
1917 
4.77 
5.95 
5.0 
6.2 
1918 
4.84 
6. 45 
5.0 
6.7 
1919 
4.91 
7.12 
5.1 
7.4 
1920 
4.98 
8.13 
5.2 
iSee Table 6, column 3. 
In 1910 incomes on Iowa land were expected to increase 7 cents 
a year. As a matter of fact, from 1910 to 1920 they increased by 
amounts much greater than this, so that the trend in the actual rate 
of return on 1910 investments increased much more rapidly than 
expected, and the investors in this year enjoyed unlooked-for gains 
during this 10-year period. But whether these 1910 investors will 
receive as great returns as they expected over a 40 or 50 year period 
is another question, and one which can not be answered definitely at 
this time. But it seems probable that the 1910 investors will not get 
a lower rate of return over this longer period than they expected to 
get in 1910, when the investments were made. It is interesting to 
note in this connection that average Iowa rents are probably higher 
in 1923 than they- were expected to be in 1910. Projecting the 
annual increase in rents of 7 cents a year, which buyers and sellers 
in 1910 anticipated, to 1923, gives an anticipated average rent for 
this year of So. 17 per acre. The average rent as reported for 1923 
by the Crop Reporting Board of the Bureau of Agricultural Eco- 
nomics was $7.25 per acre and this is the third year of declining rents. 
There is probably an upward bias in this estimate. This is indicated 
by the fact that the 1921 estimate was higher than the actual average 
rents reported by the census in 1920. But even allowing for this. 
it seems that investors in farm lands in 1910 were conservative enough 
to be safe. But the same can not be said of investors in 1917, 1918, 
1919, and 1920. 
ANALYSIS OF CASH RENT AS A MEASURE OF LAND INCOME. 
It has been assumed throughout this study that average cash rents 
reflect the average annual income from all farm land. I f this assump- 
tion can not be shown to be in accordance with the facts, the conclu- 
sions reached in the earlier pages of the bulletin will be largely 
invalidated. The annual income and the percentage of return on 
