40 BULLETIN 2, U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. 
observations so far made, which in many particulars are necessarily 
incomplete. A fuller study of the subject doubtless will cause a cer- 
tain revision of these opinions. 
IN THE LIGHT OF THE PAST HISTORY OF THE INDUSTRY. 
From the table on page 7, setting forth the statistics of the fish- 
scrap industry for the years 1873 to 1898, inclusive, it may be seen 
that the industry has been on its present basis since 1885. The 
annual catch has varied, the variation being determined as much, 
perhaps, by the success of the fishermen — " fishermen's luck " — as by 
the status of the industry, and the annual output in oil and scrap has 
not varied greatly from 70.000 tons of scrap and 35,000 barrels of oil. 
There has not been that growth in the recent past which would war- 
rant a belief in a growth in the future. 
During the last year there was quite an impetus noted in the 
industry, due largely to the very successful season of the preceding 
year. 1911. While there were a number of new plants under con- 
struction or beginning operations in 1912, whose establishment was 
attributable largely to the prosperous season of 1911, there were 
others which did not share in this prosperity and were either out -of 
commission or in the hands of receivers. 
The greatest change in the fish-scrap industry of the last 25 years 
has been the introduction within recent years of improved machinery 
for manufacturing the scrap. The success of this move has been 
pronounced. This success has been almost too recent to enable one 
to say what effect it will have on the industry. But since the main 
expense involved in the industry lies in the operation of the boats 
and the main profit in the success of the boats, it is evident that 
changes in the factory proper can not have a far-reaching influence 
on the industry as a whole. 
IN THE LIGHT OF THE SUPPLY OF FISH. 
Eepeated inquiries among the menhaden fishermen with respect to 
the decrease in the number of fish have failed to reveal any impor- 
tant indication that the menhaden are any less abundant to-day than 
in times past. Occasionally the opinion is expressed that they have 
decreased ; but frequently this opinion is based on the disappearance 
of the fish from certain inclosed bodies of water from entering which 
they are prevented by the large number of fishing steamers operating 
at the entrance to such bodies of water. As has been pretty conclu- 
sively indicated, the number of fish caught by the fishermen is hardly 
significant when compared with those destroyed by the carnivorous 
fish which prey upon them. It is not to be expected, therefore, that 
even increasing fishing will impair their numbers, unless, indeed, cer- 
