28 
BULLETIN" 1440, U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 
Since the World War, the variations in European demand and in 
other factors have been so great that it has not yet been possible to 
forecast hog prices with the same exactness that they could have been 
forecasted under pre-war conditions. 
There seem to have been rather rapid shifts in the consumption 
habits of American consumers during recent years. Factors which 
may have been partly responsible for this are (1) the changes made 
in diet during the war period, under the influence of widespread 
publicity to "eat less meat" which may have had a more lasting 
effect than was intended at the time; (2) the publicity given to 
such recent discoveries as vitamins in the field of nutrition; (3) the 
extensive advertising or drives to increase the use of dairy products 
and various fruits; and (4) the higher wage level of the city popula- 
tion since the war (in terms of real purchasing power) which has fur- 
PRICE PER 
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ices of 
hogs at Chicago 
B- Hog prices predicted six months in advance 
bg an empirical method based, upon previous 
conditions indicated bu corn and hog prices, 
the average live weight and the average price 
C-Ho 
on 
an 
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y prices predicted five months in advance 
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1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 
A. J. O. . 
1909 
1912 1913 1914- 
Fig. 23.— Actual hog prices, prices estimated by the forecasting formula, and prices estimated on 
the basis of "futures" prices for short ribs and lard. The latter forecast (C) is not nearly so 
accurate as is the mathematical forecast (B) 
nished the means to sustain a higher standard of living. As a net 
result, the level of demand for pork and its products since the war, 
as found by definite statistical study, has been markedly different 
from what it would have been had it followed the pre-war trend. 
At the same time, a new factor has been injected into the hog 
market situation in the shape of the "pig survey" of the Bureau of 
Agricultural Economics. On the basis of reports from a very large 
number of farmers, this survey gives an estimate of the size of the 
"pig crop" twice a year, and shows what changes farmers intend to 
make in their breeding operations: These surveys so far have fore- 
casted both the size of the next pig crop and the total marketings from 
each crop with a very fair degree of accuracy. To date, they have 
checked with the changes that would be expected on the basis of the 
statistical study presented above. The breeding intentions for the 
spring crop of 1926, however, did not show the increase which would 
be expected from conditions at that time, 
