18 BULLETIN 1440, U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 
During the period from 1914 to 1918 the World War sent the export 
demand to unprecedented heights. It is interesting to note by com- 
paring Figure 16 with Figure 15 that the very heavy exports follow- 
ing the deflation period of 1920 were due largely to the exceptionally 
low hog prices, and therefore did not indicate a strong demand. 
Exports in 1923 of nearly twice the usual pre-war quantity indicated 
an export demand only about 25 per cent higher, when allowance for 
the prevailing low price was made. 
VARIATION IN STORAGE STOCKS 
The quantity of hog products in storage is another of the factors 
which men who are buying live hogs for slaughter take into considera- 
tion, as bearing upon the prices they will probably be able to get for 
the products from the hogs. Large storage stocks represent that 
much to be added to current production to give the supply of products 
available for consumption during the next few months; low storage 
stocks may mean that some of the production of the next few" months 
will be held out of consumption and used to build stocks up to their 
usual level. For this reason hog slaughterers usually tend to bid 
somewhat higher for live hogs when the stocks of provisions are 
low than when they are high. The quantity of hog products in storage 
had a material influence upon the strength of the demand for live 
hogs during the period before the war, especially whenever they went 
more than about 40 per cent above the usual quantity in storage for 
the particular season of the year. Next to changes in export demand, 
change in storage stocks was apparently the most important cause of 
change in the strength of the market demand. 
PROSPERITY OF AMERICAN CONSUMERS 
Considerable variations in the purchasing power of industrial 
workers and other city dwellers took place during the period studied. 
It has usually been thought that this variation in the prosperity of 
city people had a considerable effect upon the price of hogs. The 
analysis showed that hog prices are affected by these changes in 
business conditions somewhat more than are the averages of all 
wholesale prices, but are not affected as much as are many other 
more sensitive products. At some times, when business was good, 
wages were high and nearly every one who wanted a job could get 
one; at other times, when business was bad, many men were out of 
work and even those who were working had to accept lower wages. 
When business conditions were unusually good, that tended to raise 
hog prices somewhat more than most products, but with this exception 
the demand for hogs, eliminating the general change in all prices, was 
apparently just as good when business activity was below normal as 
when it was moderately brisk. Compared with changes in export 
demand and in storage stocks, changes in industrial activity had 
only a relatively small effect upon the demand for hogs. 8 
8 This conclusion should be taken as tentative until further work is done on this point. There is some 
question whether the index used to represent changes in business activity in making this study would serve 
as an accurate index of changes in the buying power of industrial workers. The fact that the prices had been 
"deflated" by the Bureau of Labor index of wholesale prices meant that as much of the variation in busi- 
ness activity as is reflected in that index had already been eliminated, and that only the further variation 
left in the data were considered. The evidence is clear that hog prices are slightly more susceptible to 
business conditions than are the commodities included in the Bureau of Labor Statistics index, {17), on 
the average. 
