FACTORS AFFECTING THE PEICE OF HOGS 
17 
Many times when the prices of hogs and hog products were unusually 
low, unusually large quantities of hog products were exported. But 
as soon as prices rose again the export movement fell back to its 
former proportions, showing that the heavy movement was not due 
to any real strengthening of the demand but was merely a normal 
response to the lower prices. The same thing is true of high prices. 
Actual changes in the strength of export demand are shown in 
Figure 16. This chart shows the same data as are plotted in Figure 
15 (the actual volume of exports) adjusted to eliminate the effect of 
price upon the volume. The index given in Figure 16 is thus an 
index of the quantity which would have been exported monthly 
had the price of hogs (in dollars of constant purchasing power) 
remained unchanged throughout the period, in so far as could be 
judged by observing the average relation between prices and quantity 
exported in the pre-war period. Since it shows approximately the 
quantity which would have been taken for export had the price 
INDEX OF EXPORT DEMAND FOR HOG PRODUCTS 
r l 
1 
1 
1 
fi, 
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J 
1 
I 
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s 
-V 
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1 u 
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,ln,l„M, 
nlnlnli 
A 
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1904 1905 IS06 1907 1906 1303 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914- 1915 I9IS 1917 1313 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 
Fig. 16. — Index of export demand. This reveals the strength of export demand, as shown after 
adjusting the actual exports to take account of the fact that low prices cause large exports and 
high prices, small exports. Exports in 1923 were not particularly large when price was taken 
nto account 
remained unchanged, it does show more nearly the true changes in 
the strength of the export demand. 
Export demand was variable, changing sometimes very rapidly. 
One reason for the fluctuations in foreign demand was the change in 
the number of hogs produced in foreign countries. Production of 
hogs in the different European countries varies nearly as widely as 
it does in this country. When their own supplies were short, that 
tended to strengthen their demand for our hog products; when their 
own production was extra large that tended to weaken the export 
demand over here. Changes in the foreign prices of other products 
like oleomargarine, which could be substituted for lard or other hog 
products, also tended to affect the export demand. Changes in 
relative prosperity of industrial workers and other pork consumers 
in Europe, owing to changes in wages, number of unemployed, and 
the like, probably were responsible for some of the changes in export 
demand. 7 
7 No attempt has as yet been made at mathematical measurement of the relative importance of the dif- 
[ ferent factors affecting the foreign demand. The hog production of Denmark and Germany shows a decided 
tendency toward the same sort of periodic variations that charactenze American production of hogs. The 
differences in foreign supplies could probably be measured and forecasted in the same way that variations 
I in American production have been handled in this study. In so far as foreign demand is affected by varia- 
tion in foreign supplies, this would make one step toward forecasting export demand. 
2470 c 
>6f- 
