4 BULLETIN 1440, U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 
Warren and Pearson (31, pp. 133-149) pointed out how hog pro- 
duction followed changes in the corn-hog ratio, and stated that it 
was probably the dominant element causing hog-price changes. 
Wright, using data of practically semiannual averages, worked 
out mathematically the effect of this relation upon subsequent receipts 
and prices, and gave what was apparently the first clear explanation 
of the causes of the fairly regular recurrence of the hog cycle (34, 
p. 59). While showing that regression equations involving corn 
prices and the summer weight of hogs would give good correlation 
with the receipts and prices of hogs for the next winter, he did not 
include the corn-hog ratio as such in his correlations, and hence did 
not measure the significance of this relation directly. Sarle (20) 
showed that the direct use of the corn-hog ratio as a factor would 
improve the accuracy with which hog prices could be forecasted. 
Certain details of his statistical treatment however, prevented him 
from obtaining the full measure of its true importance (7). 
Several investigators have pointed out the high degree of corre- 
spondence between- the wholesale and retail prices of hog products 
and of live hogs, Wallace (28), Wentworth and Ellinger (32), and 
Wright (34) working out mathematical statements of the nature and 
closeness of the relation. 
These successive studies have marked an advance in the under- 
standing of the subject, and a closer approach to a complete explana- 
tion of all the factors involved. The present study does not pretend 
to be such a complete statement but is offered merely as another 
step in advance. 
In his first publication half a century ago, Benner said (1, p. 131): 
The science of price cycles is yet in the cradle of its infancy, but waiting its 
time to mature full development, to unfold its principles, and declare its oracles 
to all mankind, and to demonstrate that the causes and the laws of nature in 
production are not past finding out; and that man in his onward path of progress 
* * * will ultimately grasp the future. 
Looking back over the record of the unfolding knowledge of the 
price-making forces for one product, and realizing the continuous 
improvement both in basic data and in analytical technique which 
has accompanied this advance, it would seem that Benner's optimism 
has been fully justified. 
DESCRIPTION OF THE MARKET WHERE THE PRICE IS MADE 
Approximately 70 per cent of the hogs produced on our nearly 
5,000,000 hog-producing farms are slaughtered and converted into 
meat and meat products by packing establishments. Nearly 1,400 
individual establishments were engaged in this business in 1923, but 
the bulk of the business was done by less than a dozen large corpo- 
rations, operating plants at many different points. From these plants 
the meat is distributed to retail dealers largely through a system of 
branch houses, wholesale salesmen, and refrigerator-car routes oper- 
ated under the same business management as the packing establish- 
ments. Something like 100,000 retail dealers in fresh meats, as well as 
many groceries, delicatessens, and other retail establishments handling 
cured meats, complete the final step in distribution to the consumer. 4 
4 According to Marshall (16), based on scattered surveys, in cities outside of New York City there is 
one retail store handling fresh meats for about every 800 persons; in New York City, one for about every 
1,450 (excluding kosher stores), and in rural communities except in the South, one for about every 1,700. 
Retail meat stores are rare in rural communities in the South. The rough estimate of 100,000 retail meat 
stores is based upon these figures. 
