UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 
DEPARTMENT BULLETIN No. 1440 
Washington, D. C. 
November, 1926 
FACTORS AFFECTING THE PRICE OF HOGS 
By G. C. Haas and Mordecai Ezekiel, Agricultural Economists, Bureau of 
Agricultural Economics l 
CONTENTS 
Ways in which farmers adjust operations to hog 
prices 
Previous studies of hog prices 
Description of the market where the price is 
made 
Interrelation of prices at different central 
markets 
Prices used in the statistical analysis 
Analysis of specific factors affecting the price- 
Method of presentation 
Supply factors :__. 
Demand factors 
Interaction of supply and demand 
Causes of the variations in the supply of hogs 
Balance between corn prices and hog prices. 
Eeaction of farmers to changes in the corn- 
hog price relation 
Relation between price ratios and the weight of 
hogs 
Page 
E Sect of weather conditions on hog supplies 25 
Factors indicating subsequent changes in hog 
prices 25 
Statisticalbasis for the relations 30 
Basic data 33 
Demand curve and trend of demand 33 
Index of foreign demand . 39 
Index of total demand 40 
Relative importance of factors affecting 
price 42 
Factors affecting demand 43 
Forecasting prices in deviations from trend. 46 
Forecasting prices by percentage changes.. 50 
Forecasting prices from the futures prices 
for hog products 52 
Summary 53 
Appendix 54 
Literature cited 67 
WAYS IN WHICH FARMERS ADJUST OPERATIONS TO HOG PRICES 
The 5,000,000 hog producers of this country use hog prices as an 
indication of when to increase their production and when to decrease, 
just as producers of all other commodities sold on a competitive 
market use prices as a guide to their operations. 
Though all producers consciously or unconsciously take price into 
consideration (fig. 1) the decisions they reach vary with the individual. 
Farmers may be grouped roughly into three classes in this regard: (1) 
Those who expand production when prices are favorable and contract 
when prices are unfavorable; (2) those who look beyond current prices 
1 The analysis on which this bulletin is based was initiated by the senior author in 1923, in an effort to 
arrive at means of forecasting hog prices. He worked out tne forecasting technique described in the section 
on '•Forecasting prices in deviations from trend" and then cooperated with the junior author in the 
study of the way farmers could use these results and in a joint study of the fundamental economic rela- 
tions of factors affecting hog prices. After January 1, 1925, the study of the economics of the market and 
the further study of forecasting prices by the percentage-change method were completed by the junior 
author and the text of this bulletin was written by him. 
Assistance on the statistical phases of the work was rendered by Margaret Matheson and Anna R. Sulli- 
van and appreciation is due them for their share in this investigation. 
A popular discussion of the material presented in this bulletin is given in the TJ. S. Dept. Agr. Farmers' 
Bui., "What Makes the Price of Hogs?" (8Y- 
2 Figures in parenthesis in italic refer to "Literature cited." p. 67. 
2470°— 26+ 1 1 
