40 
BULLETIN 1283, U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 
So close an inverse correlation has existed in past years that one 
knowing the amount of storage holdings on February 1 could predict 
approximately the average opening price that would be paid for 
Bermudas two months later. Figure 13 shows the price so predicted 
compared with the actual opening price. The predicted price 
changes its direction in every case in like manner with actual price, 
never misses the actual figure by more than 20 per cent, and prac- 
tically coincides with the actual price in two years out of the eight. 
The differences are the result of other factors acting on the price level 
for Bermudas. 
The actual amount of old stock on hand at the opening of the 
Bermuda season, as indicated by total shipments of old stock after 
the respective opening dates, shows a similar inverse correlation 
OPENING PRICES OF BERMUDA ONIONS COMPARED WITH PRICE PREDICTED 
FEBRUARY 1 FROM STORAGE HOLDINGS 
DOLLARS 
PER CRATE 
> 
/ 
/ 
\ Pre diet 
V 
ed Price\ ^ 
V 
/ 
/ i 
/ / 
/ — y~ 
f / 
\ 
\ \ 
/ •] 
~~~~ 
\A 1 / 
\s 
\ \ 
/ / 
/A ctual 
Price 
f 
/Tusj) 
1916 
1917 
1918 
1919 
1920 
1921 
1922 
1923 
Fig. 13.— So close an inverse correlation exists between the amount of storage holdings on February 1 and 
the opening prices that will be paid for Bermudas two months later, that one can predict approximately 
the price that will be paid from this one factor alone. The predicted price above is based on the assump- 
tion that each change of 100 cars in storage holdings changes the price inversely 72.2 cents. The actual 
price is the average of the first day of the season for which prices are quoted from at least three large 
consuming markets 
between amount of storage stock and Bermuda opening prices; but 
the degree of correlation is not so noticeable because the February 
1 report is the last complete report of storage holdings available to 
the trade. Upon this report, contracts are based for purchase of 
crops which more or less fix the value of the first shipments. The 
actual number of cars that will move is not known until later. Esti- 
mates are all that are available. For this reason, the February 1 
estimate of storage holdings has proved in the past to be a better 
index of Bermuda opening prices than actual quantities remaining 
after the opening of the Bermuda season. 
PRICES OF OLD ONIONS BEFORE OPENING OF BERMUDA SEASON 
In a general way, prices of old stock immediately preceding the 
opening of the Bermuda season vary inversely as the supply of old 
stock. But the quality and condition of the old stock and a number 
