74 BULLETIN" 1402, U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGEICTJLTUEE 
It is impossible to tell what stumpage values will be in several 
decades from now ; that is, when the first returns will begin to come 
in from carefully managed forests. No estimate of the probabilities 
can, however, disregard the undoubted increased domestic demand 
for wood, the equally certain decreased supply, nor the inevitable 
tendency of these two economic factors to increased stumpage values. 
In each forest region of the country, stumpage prices have followed 
substantially the same course. At first, with a plentiful supply of 
virgin timber, the prices have been low at the start of extensive 
cutting, rising gradually as lumbering proceeded, and finally, for 
softwood species, reaching a point of $15 to $18 per thousand board 
feet as the supply approached exhaustion. Second growth, worth 
practically nothing while virgin timber was available in large quan- 
tities, has suddenly acquired value when the old timber is no longer 
for sale, and has finally equaled or exceeded in stumpage price the 
inaccessible remnants of the virgin forest. The final level of value 
seems to lie above the cost of growing timber, even after liberal 
allowances are made for costs of production. 
In all probability the population of California, which is now grow- 
ing more rapidly than that of the entire country, will continue lo do 
so for some time. As a consequence the local need for wood is certain 
to increase rapidly, and since in 1923 the consumption of lumber in 
California was over twice the cut, it is evident that even with abun- 
dant virgin forests a market for second-growth timber will continue 
to exist. There is every reason to expect that stumpage rates will con- 
tinue to rise, as they have in every forest region. 
In short, although it is impossible to certify now that an invest- 
ment in timber growing will earn a stated rate of interest, it is equally 
impossible to state flatly that capital investment will not earn a 
fair return. If we compare the state of the timber supply, the ex- 
pected future demand, and the known possibilities for yields with 
what has happened elsewhere, the opportunities for growing timber 
at a profit on private lands do not appear absent. Well selected 
areas, properly protected and managed, on the better sites, should 
prove a good investment. 
The speculative features in the timber-growing business to-day are 
no greater than in the timber acquisition business of 25 or 30 years 
ago, if they are as great. At that time it was not at all certain that 
increasing population and demand for lumber would make it profit- 
able to exploit these forests, and the apparently inexhaustible sup- 
plies of the South put the eastern and central market beyond the 
reach of western lumber. The possibility of serious loss from fire 
was far greater than to-day, for systematic protection was unl?:nown. 
The amount of the tax burden and other carrying charges was 
largely an unknown quantity. In spite of these apparent obstacles, 
men with boldness and foresight found the acquisition of timber a 
profitable venture. There is little reason to doubt that the growing 
of timber will likewise prove a profitable business in the California 
pine region, as it is in other forest regions. (Fig. 24.) 
Neither the Forest Service nor anyone else can say flat-footedly 
that timber growing is a profitable undertaking for all owners of 
forest land in the California pine region. This question can be 
answered only by expert study of each operation, taking account of 
