COTTON PRICES AND MARKETS 17 
ing the proper parity between spots and futures. The number of 
bales and the grade of this cotton are published in the daily report 
of the exchanges. 
FORECASTING SUPPLY 
The number of acres harvested multiplied by the lint yield in 
pounds per acre, divided by the average weight of bales, equals the 
gin-bale production. The net-weight bale production multiplied by 
the yarn yield percentage of the average grade equals the yield of 
spinnable cotton. 
Therefore the forecasting of the supply involves forecasting the 
acreage, the yield per acre, and the quality of the crop. The most 
potent factors determining acreage are the relative price of cotton 
in December, January, and February, and the yield per acre of the 
previous year, or the profitableness of the previous crop. 10 
The above factors may estimate the intentions of the planters, but 
the weather or other hindrances may prevent the execution of the 
intent in any given year. The United States Department of Agri- 
culture does not attempt to forecast the acreage planted to cotton. 
It makes an estimate of the acreage planted and in cultivation as of 
June 25. This estimate is corrected in the December general crop 
report by an estimate of the acreage harvested, yield per acre, and 
acres abandoned since June 25. The final acreage figure is arrived 
at by dividing the production by the estimate of the yield per acre. 
Forecasting yield per acre involves many factors. The weather 
is the big factor. It is so important, that through the summer,' the 
market is often spoken of as a weather market. For any given 
place there may be said to be a combination of temperature and 
moisture which will give the optimum yield. A deviation in either 
direction will decrease it. Thus either an excessively dry, hot period, 
or a long period of wet, cool weather, tends to decrease the yield. 
The problem of forecasting the yield in the United States from 
weather is different since the introduction of the boll weevil. There 
are still other factors which must be taken into account such as (1) 
quantity of fertilizer used, (2) amount of available labor, (3) num- 
ber and kinds of pests, (4) kind and amount of effort used to combat 
pests, and (5) price. 
FORECASTING THE CROP OF THE UNITED STATES 
The crop of the United States is the dominating one, and the 
methods of forecasting it have been the most highly developed. 
Forecasts are made by private concerns and by the United States 
Department of Agriculture. The first report of the United States 
Department of Agriculture is issued about June 1 and is as of May 
25. It is merely a condition report. The second report is issued as 
of June 25. It contains an estimate of acreage and a condition re- 
port which, when multiplied by the June par, gives the approximate 
outturn of the crop, provided the development of the crop for the 
remainder of the year equals the average of previous years. 
10 Smith, .Bradford B., Forecasting the acreage of cotton. Jour. Amer. Statistical 
Assn., Mar., 1925. .... - 
6103°— 26 3 
