HOW UNITED STATES CAN MEET PULP- WOOD REQUIREMENTS. 29 
But during the last half century particularly per capita as well as total paper 
consumption has advanced rapidly. Between 1899 and 1922 per capita con- 
sumption increased 90 pounds, from about 57 to almost 147. An equal per 
capita increase during the next 25 years would with the predicted growth in 
population involve a total paper consumption of around 18 million tons. 
Some per capita increase is likely, and a considerable increase is possible. 
High prices due to pulp-wood shortage may play a part in limiting that increase; 
but they may not play a large part, for reasons that will be brought out later. 
The increase since 1899 has been in the face of an almost fivefold increase of 
pulp-wood prices. (Table 41.) Expanding per capita consumption has been 
brought about partly by the great increase in the quantity of paper used for 
books, magazines, and newspapers, partly by an even greater increase in the 
quantity used industrially, in the products classified in Table 3 as " boards," 
"wrapping," and "all others." Practically half of the 1922 paper consumption 
was of these classes, with newsprint, book, and fine papers making up the other 
half. The same causes that during the last 25 years have been pushing upward 
the quantity of paper used in both fields will continue to have some effect. 
A forecast of future trends in per capita consumption calls for separate con- 
sideration of each field. Density of population ordinarily stimulates per capita 
consumption of paper, largely because of the greatly increased volume of printed 
matter. Advertising accounts for much of this; and although producers and 
merchants are finding out better how to advertise, signs are not altogether 
wanting of a popular reaction against the present volume. Publishers are con- 
stantly seeking new readers and education is tending to make more. All things 
considered, the saturation point in consumption of printed matter still seems 
to be in the future but just how far it is impossible to predict with certainty. 
The probability of expanded use of other and possibly new paper grades 
presents other considerations. The limitations of wood fiber as an industrial 
material are unknown. Already a pronounced beginning has been made in the 
substitution of various fiber boards for lumber. The use of paper and board 
containers of various kinds since 1900 has shown an astonishing growth. In- 
creasing scarcity and cost of lumber may be an important factor in developing 
new forms of use of a material that can be produced from woods and mill waste, 
forest thinnings, and quickly grown small stock. Invention has certainly not 
yet exhausted the possibilities of pulp. A more highly organized industrial life 
and economic development that will raise the average standard of comfort are also 
factors that will tend to increase per capita paper consumption. 
The possibility that other factors, which can not now be definitely foreseen, 
will work toward decreased consumption should by no means be overlooked. 
At some future time, as a result of a combination of causes, the paper consump- 
tion curve will flatten out or even reach a peak and decline. Although the former 
is probable, just which of the two it will be, and when, no one can predict with 
certainty. 
The United States in 1920 manufactured more than half of the world's paper 
and consumed 98 per cent of that manufactured. To supplement domestic 
material we purchased from Canada 31 per cent of her pulp-wood cut, and nearly 
32 per cent of her pulp output, about one-tenth of Sweden's pulp production, 
and smaller amounts of pulp from a number of other countries. We purchased 
also large amounts of foreign paper, the chief item being nearly 78 per cent of 
Canada's newsprint output. Altogether in 1920 we used 56 per cent of the 
world's paper. The United States constitutes to-day, and has constituted for 
50 years, far and away the world's greatest paper market. (Fig. 22.) In this 
respect even the most progressive European countries are very poor competitors. 
