WHAT MAKES THE PRICE OF OATS 29 
Table III. — Value of oats produced and consumed in the United States, 1895-1913 
Production 
United States 
Under actual conditions of 
consumption 
With a uniform increase in 
consumption 
Year 
Actual 
Trend 
Annual 
con- 
sump- 
tion i 
Decem- 
ber farm 
price per 
bushel 2 
Total 
value 
Annual 
con- 
sump- 
tion 3 
Esti- 
mated 
Decem- 
ber farm 
price per 
bushel 4 
Esti- 
mated 
total 
value 
Neces- 
sary ad- 
dition 
to carry 
over s 
1895 
Million 
bushels 
824 
780 
791 
843 
926 
914 
778 
1,053 
869 
1,009 
1,090 
1,036 
805 
851 
1,068 
1.186 
922 
1,418 
1,122 
Million 
bushels 
776 
796 
816 
836 
856 
876 
896 
916 
936 
956 
976 
996 
1,016 
1,036 
1,056 
1,076 
1,096 
1,116 
1,136 
Million 
bushels 
746 
820 
822 
835 
920 
919 
810 
1,004 
902 
989 
1,076 
1,040 
840 
863 
1,030 
1,179 
961 
1,338 
1,172 
Cents 
20 
19 
21 
26 
25 
26 
40 
31 
34 
31 
29 
32 
44 
47 
40 
34 
45 
32 
39 
Million 
dollars 
149 
156 
173 
217 
230 
239 
324 
311 
307 
307 
312 
333 
370 
406 
412 
401 
432 
428 
457 
Million 
bushels 
776 
796 
816 
836 
856 
876 
896 
916 
936 
956 
976 
996 
1,016 
968 
1,030 
1,076 
1,064 
1,116 
1,136 
Cents 
22.1 
23.2 
24.4 
25.5 
26.7 
27.8 
29.0 
30.1 
31.3 
32.4 
33.6 
34.7 
35.9 
40.0 
39.0 
39.3 
42.0 
41.6 
42.8 
Million 
dollars 
171 
185 
199 
213 
229 
244 
260 
276 
293 
310 
328 
346 
365 
387 
402 
423 
447 
464 
486 
? 107 
Million 
bushels 

1896 
24 
1897 
30 
1898 
29 
1899 
93 
1900 . 
136 
1901 . 
50 
1902 
138 
1903 
104 
1904 
137 
1905 
237 
1906 
281 
1907 
105 
1908 
6 68 
1909 
e 26 
1910 
103 
1911 
6 32 
1912 
222 
1913 
258 
Value of carry- 
over 
Total. 
5,964 
6,135 
-5,964 
1,947 
171 
1 Production plus carry over from previous year less carry over to following year. 
2 From U. S. Dept. Agr. Yearbooks. 
3 Same as trend of production except for the deficit years 1908, 1909, and 1911, when the sum of carry over 
plus production was less than the trend of production. 
4 Straight-line trend of price except for the deficit years, 1908, 1909, and 1911, when price was estimated 
on the basis of percentage changes. 
5 Obtained by subtracting the production trend figure from the actual consumption figure and adding 
the necessary additional carry over from the preceding year. For example the 1897 carry over figure of 30 
is obtained by subtracting the trend figure (816) from consumption (822) and adding the addition to carry 
over (24) to the remainder. This figure, therefore, signifies hypothetical addition to actual carry over. 
6 Consumption for year computed is greater than production. 
7 The figure 107 represents the value of 258 million bushels carried from 1913 to 1914 at the 1914 price (44 
cents) less the value of 30 million bushels carried from 1894 to 1895 at the 1895 price. 
