18 
BULLETIN 1351, U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 
Table 9. — Average monthly prices of oats, 1881-1913, and their standard 
deviations 
Month 
Price 
Standard 
deviation 
Month 
Price 
Standard 
deviation 
1 Cents 
July... 34.8 
10.1 
8.6 
8.4 < 
8.7 
8.5 ! 
9.1 ! 
9.3 
February -..---_ 
Cents 4 
33.5 
33.9 
34.6 
35.6 
35.3 
9.6 
August . . 31. 2 
10.0 
September . 30.5 
April.. 
10.2 
October. 31.0 
May. 
10.3 
November ... 
31.7 
32.7 
33.0 
June ... ... . . 
9.7 
December 
January 
Entire period 
33.0 
8.8 
With reference to this subject, Working says: 17 
A properly adjusted price would remain the same throughout the season, 
except for a gradual advance to cover cost of storage, and would maintain a 
fairly uniform consumption throughout the season. But since an abnormally 
high price early in the season causes small consumption, it must be compensated 
by an abnormally low price during the remainder of the season or not all the 
crop can be sold. 
Similarly, he says that if the price is abnormally low early in the 
season the supply will be exhausted too rapidly, and for the resulting 
PRICE 
CENTS 
PER BUSHEL 
50 
40 
30 
20 
10 
l\ 
/ 
/ 
/ 
1 
\ 
\ 
> 
/ 
A 
i I 
V 
A 
/ 1 
Y 
■ 
< 
i 1 
1 
U. S. Produ 
ctio 
i 
1 
• 
i / 
V 
A 
J 
A 
\ 
epft 
\ 
• 
'1 
1 
L--r d 
1 
1 
• 
• 
L 
PRODUCTION 
Ml LLIONS 
OF BUSHELS 
1500 
1200 
900 
600 
300 
I896'97 '98 '99 I900'0I '02*03*04 I905'06'07 '08 '09 1910 'II '12 '13 '14 1915 
A comparison of the United States production of oats and the September price 
Fig. 8. — The inverse relation between the production of oats and the September price is clearly shown. 
small supply later in the year abnormally high prices will be paid, 
the result being that, although the price at any one time may differ 
from the normal price justified by demand and supply conditions, the 
average price for a season will come very close to the normal. 18 This 
statement regarding potato prices may likewise be applied to oat 
prices, with the modification that variations in the carry over of 
oats may cause the influence of one crop to extend into the following 
season. 
SEPTEMBER PRICE AS A BASIS FOR ESTIMATING SEASONAL PRICES 
The fact that the standard deviation of the September price from 
the average for the period studied is less than that of any other month 
and less than that of the average annual price suggests that it may 
17 See footnote 5. 
is Another method of taking account of seasonal variation is to correlate prices of each month with the 
price-makin? factors. 
