WHAT MAKES THE PRICE OF OATS 
Table 8. — Seasonal price trends of oats, 1881 to 1913 
17 
Month 
Average seasonal prices 
1881-1914 
Seasonal prices 
when produc- 
tion was 5 per 
cent or more 
above normal 
trend 
Seasonal prices when produc- 
tion was 5 per cent or more 
below normal trend 
Aver- 
age 
month- 
ly 
price 
Correc- 
tion for 
trend l 
Cor- 
rected 
price 
Ratios 
to sea- 
sonal 
aver- 
age 
Aver- 
age 
month- 
ly 
price 2 
Ratios 
to sea- 
sonal 
aver- 
age 
Aver- 
age 
month- 
ly 
price 
Cor- 
rection 
for 
trend l 
Cor- 
rected 
price 
Ratios 
to sea- 
sonal 
aver- 
age 
July.. 
Cents 
34.8 
31.2 
30.5 
31.0 
31.7 
32.7 
33.0 
33.6 
33.9 
34.7 
35.6 
35.3 
Cents 
0.06 
.11 
.17 
.22 
.27 
.33 
.38 
.44 
.50 
.55 
.61 
.66 
Cents 
34.7 
31.1 
30.3 
30.8 
31.4 
32.4 
32.6 
33.2 
33.4 
34.1 
35.0 
34.6 
105.8 
94.8 
92.4 
93.9 
95.7 
98.8 
99.4 
101.2 
181.8 
104.0 
106.7 
105.5 
Cents 
33.1 
27.6 
26.3 
26.4 
27.4 
28.1 
28.0 
28.4 
28.0 
28.8 
30.1 
30.7 
115.8 
96.6 
92.1 
92.4 
95.9 
98.3 
98.0 
99.4 
98.0 
100.8 
105.3 
107.4 
Cents 
38.1 
37.3 
38.5 
39.4 
39.7 
40.8 
41.2 
41.8 
42.7 
44.0 
44.7 
43.7 
Cents 
0.04 
.07 
.11 
.14 
.18 
.22 
.25 
.29 
.32 
.36 
.40 
.43 
Cents 
38.1 
37.2 
38.4 
39.3 
39.5 
40.6 
41.0 
41.5 
42.4 
43.6 
44.3 
43.3 
93.5 
91.3 
Sept . - 
94.2 
Oct 
96.4 
96.9 
Dec 
99.6 
100.6 
Feb 
101. & 
Mar 
104.0 
106.9 
108.7 
106.2 
32.8 
28.6 
40.8 
i The correction for trend is little greater than the probable error of the price arrived at by averaging 
weekly high and low quotations. 
2 The correction for trend is negligible — only 0.12 cents per year. 
[ 
In order to see how closely the 33-year seasonal average reflects 
price movements for any one month, the standard deviations of the 
monthly averages have been calculated. (See Table 9.) These 
show that the September price is most accurately measured by the 
average price for that month, for the deviations of prices during 
that month from the average price have been least. The May price 
has the greatest deviation from its average. 
APPLICATION OF SEASONAL TREND IN ESTIMATING PRICE 
After having estimated the annual average price an index of 
seasonal price movements may be used for two purposes: To deter- 
mine whether the price for any given month is above or below the 
normal level of seasonal prices and to indicate the probable trend of 
prices during the following months of the crop year. For these 
purposes the ratios of monthly average prices to the yearly average 
are most useful. (See Table 8.) These should be used with refer- 
ence to whether the crop is about normal, below normal, or above 
normal, the normal production being represented by a trend which 
indicates as accurately as possible the general direction in which 
production is going. A price at the beginning of the crop year, 
then, which seems considerably above the normal seasonal price as 
indicated by the ratio for the given month, may be expected to fall 
below the estimated seasonal price before the end of the crop year. 
47438°— 25f— Bull. 1351 3 
