16 
BULLETIN 1351, U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 
in Figure 6. Figure 7 represents the average trends of prices for 
16 months during the growing and marketing period. Values are 
expressed as ratios to the beginning April price on the assumption 
that this price is not influenced by the crop of that year. 
Table 6. — Variations in oat prices, per bushel, September to the following May, 
1881-1913 
When production was 
about normal 
When production was 
5 per cent or more be- 
below normal 
When production was 
5 per cent or more 
above normal 
A 
P. 
d> 
Pi 
_w 
CO >> 
CO >> 
'£ 
CO >> 
Year 
a 
>> 
g£ 
Year 
>> 
gS 
Year 
a> 
Pi 
>> 
gS 
©~< 
p, 
o 
bo 
a 
£2 
ft 
u 
C 
P. 
1 
bfl 
a 
fl 
-a jo 
a 
fe 
■o-S 
N 
fe 
■^•9 
© 
o 
o 
=3 a 
2§ 
o 
<3 a 
8 J 
o 
p,-^ 
o 
p,-^ 
«D 
o 
p.** 
02 
fa 
w 
CO 
fa 
CO 
CO 
fa 
CQ 
Cts. 
Cts. 
Cts. 
P.ct. 
Cts. 
Cfcs. 
Cis. 
P.ct. 
Cts. 
Cts. 
Cts. 
J: ct. 
1882-83 .. 
33 
41 
+8 
+24.2 
1881-82.. 
39 
53 
+14 
+35.9 
1883-84.. 
27 
32 
+5 
+ 18.5 
1896-97 . . 
16 
18 
+2 
+12.5 
1890-91.. 
37 
51 
+ 14 
+37.8 
1884-85.. 
25 
35 
+ 10 
+40.0 
L897-98-. 
20 
30 
+ 10 
+50.0 
1892-93.. 
34 
31 
-3 
-8.8 
1885-86 . . 
25 
29 
+4 
+ 16.0 
1898-99.. 
21 
27 
+6 
+28.6 
1893-94.. 
26 
35 
+9 
+34.6 
1886-87.. 
25 
26 
+ 1 
+4.0 
1900-01.. 
22 
29 
+7 
+31.8 
1894-95.. 
30 
29 
-1 
-3.3 
1887-88 .. 
25 
35 
+ 10 
+40.0 
1904-0:).. 
31 
31 

1901-02.. 
35 
43 
+8 
+22.9 
1888-89.. 
24 
23 
-1 
-4.2 
1906-07 . . 
32 
43 
+ 11 
+34. 4 
1903-04.. 
35 
40 
+ 5 
+ 14.3 
1889-90.. 
20 
28 
+8 
+40.0 
1909-10.. 
40 
43 
+3 
+7.5 
1907-08.. 
49 
53 
+4 
+8.2 
1891-92-. 
32 
31 
-1 
-3. 1 
1908-09.. 
1911-12.. 
1913-14.. 
50 
45 
43 
60 
56 
41 
+ 10 
+ 11 
-2 
+20.0 
+24.4 
-4.7 
1895-96 . . 
1899-1900 
1902-03.. 
20 
22 
29 
19 
23 
33 
-1 
+ 1 
+4 
-5.0 
+4. 5 
Av 
+5.9 
+23. 6- 
+ 13.8 
1905-06 .. 
1910-11 
26 
34 
33 
35 
+7 
+ 1 
+26. 9 
+2 9 
Av 
+6.3 
+ 16. 5 
1912-13.. 
Av 
34 
39 
+5 
+ 14.7 
+3.8 
+ 14.9 
i Average monthly price. 
Table 7. — Seasonal variations in prices of oats figured by two methods, 1895-96 
to 1912-13 
Month 
Average 
monthly 
price per 
bushel not 
corrected 
for trend 
I 
Average 
Correc- 
monthly 
tion for 
price 
trend • 
corrected 
for trend 
II 
III 
Cents 
Cents 
+.715 
32.54 
+.585 
33.12 
+.455 
33.46 
+.325 
34 56 
+.195 
35.38 
+.065 
35.94 
-.065 
36. 28 
-.195 
36.46 
-.325 
37.08 
-.455 
37. 20 
-.585 
37.00 
-.715 
33.16 
Average of 
monthly 
prices per 
bushel, each 
corrected 
separately 
for trend 
IV 
Trend 
Seasonal indices 
Method 
of 
averages 2 
VI 
Method 
oflink 
relatives 3 
VII 
Column 
IV 
divided 
by its 
average 
VIII 
September 
October... 
Novcmber 
December. 
January.. 
February- 
March 
April 
May 
June. 
July 
August 
Cents 
31.83 
32.53 
33.00 
34.23 
35. 18 
35. 88 
36. 35 
36.65 
37.41 
37.65 
37.59 
33.88 
Cents 
32.53 
33.11 
23.57 
34.62 
35.37 
35.94 
36.06 
36.45 
37.09 
37.19 
37.12 
33.76 
Cents 
33.99 
34.12 
34.25 
34.38 
34.51 
34.64 
34.76 
34.89 
35.02 
35. 15 
35.28 
35.41 
95 
96 
100 
102 
104 
1 05 
105 
UI7 
107 
107 
96 
96 
98 
100 
101 
102 
104 
106 
106 
105 
'j:, 
92 
94 
95 
98 
100 
102 
102 
103 
105 
106 
105 
96 
i An average price would ordinarily be expressed to the nearest whole number, therefore, the correction 
for trend is of minor significance for practical uses. 
2 Column I divided by Column V. For method of averages see Introduction to Economic Statistics 
by G. R. Davies, 1922. 
3 For method oflink relatives see The Review of Economic Statistics, preliminary vol. 1, 1919. 
