WHAT MAKES THE PRICE OF OATS 
15 
The seasonal trend may be calculated by averaging trie monthly 
prices for the period 1881 to 1913 and correcting for the trend in 
prices. This will give a trend expressed in average monthly prices. 
This is not so useful for estimating purposes, however, as a seasonal 
CENTS 
PER BUSHEL 
40 
II 
\^*~ 
<^J 
// Years when product/on was 
5 7* or more % be/ow norma/ ^r~ 
^ 
V 
\\ ' 
' 
\ 
^ 
"^ 
^ 
33 Year Average 
/88I-I9I3 i >« Nl 
* 
r^>" 
i 
\\ 
\ \ 
\ 
*- — * 
— — - 
\ 
\ 
\ 
-M 
*> 
— 
*<■ 
/•« Years when production 
was 5% or more 
above normal 
35 
30 — 
25 
JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY 
Seasonal trends of oat prices for crops of different sizes, expressed in cents per bushel 
Fig. 6. — Although the seasonal trends in oat prices after August or September are very nearly the same, 
regardless of the size of the crop, the levels of prices are very different. Furthermore, the smaller the 
crop the sooner the price tends to rise after the decline in July and August due to heavy marketings 
index expressed in percentages. Two methods of calculating such 
an index are illustrated in Table 7. 
Since it was found that there was considerable difference in the 
seasonal movement of prices during years of large crops as compared 
120 
I 10 
100 
90 
80 
1 1 1 
Below Normal -^ 
1 1 ^ 
.,.. 
^ 
\ 
^** 
~^r* 
^ 
-•""■"" 
** 
.^ 
y 
**-^ 
^> 
.--'■ 
Aver 
w*> 
^^^H 
Abov 
e Norn 
7(7/— ^ 
*~~< 
^-** 
^— — 
70 
APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY 
Seasonal trends of oat prices for crops of different sizes, expressed as ratios to the April price 
Fig. 7. — Nearly all of the difference in the seasonal trends of oat prices as between crops of different sizes 
occurs during the growing and harvesting period 
with years of small crops, three seasonal trends were calculated, as 
given in Table 8. One is the trend for the entire period, the second 
for 14 years when production was above normal, and the third for 
11 years when production was below normal. These are illustrated 
