14 
BULLETIN 1351, U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 
prices have come at about the time of the heaviest marketing, during 
August and September, and that the highest prices have come 
oftenest in May and July. 16 This indicates that there may be a 
relationship between the quantities marketed and the price. If 
there is such a relationship, that is, if a large crop causes an undue 
depression in the price during the heavy marketing period, there 
should be a correspondingly large rise in price after the marketing 
period is over. This may be studied by comparing the movement of 
prices after a large crop with the movement of prices after small and 
normal crops. 
Table 4. — Oats: Monthly marketings by farmers 
, 1916 
-1921 
1 
Estimated quantity 
sold 
monthly by 
farmers of 
United 
States 
(millions of 
Per cei 
year's sale 
bushels) 
Month 
1916- 
1917- 
1918- 
1919- 
1920- 
5-yr. 
1916- 
1917- 
1918- 
1919- 
1920- 
5-yr. 
17 
18 
19 
20 
21 
aver. 
17 
18 
19 
20 
21 
aver. 
Julv 
31 
87 
24 
82 
34 
82 
47 
60 
36 
80 
34 
78 
8.3 
23.3 
4.7 
16.4 
8.0 
19.6 
14.4 
18.4 
8.3 
18.7 
8.7 
August... 
19.3 
September 
51 
67 
50 
33 
59 
52 
13.5 
13.5 
11.9 
10. 1 
13.8 
12.5 
October 
40 
56 
42 
30 
41 
42 
10.7 
11. 1 
9.9 
9.2 
9.5 
10.1 
November 
30 
38 
30 
19 
24 
28 
8.0 
7.7 
7.2 
5.8 
5.5 
6.8 
December 
21 
39 
28 
27 
25 
28 
5.7 
7.8 
6.7 
8.3 
5.8 
6.9 
January 
28 
42 
28 
26 
28 
30 
7.5 
8.3 
6.7 
8.2 
6.6 
7.5 
February 
20 
40 
19 
21 
28 
26 
5.3 
8.0 
4.5 
6.6 
6.6 
(1. 2 
20 
11 
17 
16 
35 
33 
20 
24 
23 
27 
29 
28 
16 
14 
17 
15 
26 
20 
29 
34 
24 
22 
22 
23 
5.2 
3.8 
4.4 
4.3 
7.1 
6.5 
* 4.0 
4.9 
5.5 
6.3 
7.0 
6.7 
4.9 
4.3 
5.2 
4.6 
6.0 
4.6 
6.8 
7.8 
5.7 
April 
5.1 
May 
5.5 
J um.' 
r,.7 
Season... 
375 
500 
420 
325 
430 
409 
100.0 
100.0 
100.0 
100.0 
100.0 
103.0 
U. S. Dept. Agr., Yearbook; 1921, p. 545. 
1881 to 1914 
ct/ /y# 
H/ J <. 
ty u u, 
/«>, ;w 
July 
Aug. 
Sept. 
Oct. 
Nov. 
Dec. 
Jan. 
Feb. 
Mar. 
Apr. 
May 
June 
Times lowest.. . 
Times highest .. 
4 
14 
7 
1 
12 
1 
2 


1 
2 


2 
1 
1 
3 

1 
2 

6 
>l 
Table 6 compares the September with the May prices during years 
(1) when production was about normal, as measured by the straight- 
line trend of production, (2) when production was 5 per cent or more 
below normal, and (3) when production was 5 per cent or more 
above normal. In the first group, including the 8 years about normal, 
the average rise from September to May was 5.9 cents, or 23.6 per 
cent over the September price. In the second group, including 11 
years with production below normal^ the average rise was 6.3 cents, 
or 16.5 per cent. In the third group, including 14 years when produc- 
tion was above normal, the average rise was 3.8 cents, or 14.9 per 
cent. These results would indicate that a large crop does not unduly 
depress the price during the heavy marketing season below a price 
fixed by the interaction of demand and supply throughout the 12 
months' period of consumption. 
is The high showing of prices in July can not, in most instances, be considered as due to the crop of the 
season in which it is included in this table, but to a relatively smaller crop of the preceding year. 
