10 
BULLETIN 1351, U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 
shows that, after the prices were adjusted for changes in the general 
price level, the total value of the four large crops was $69,000,000 
less than the total value of the four small crops. 
Table 3. — Value product of oats for large and small crop years 
Large crop years 
Small crop years 
Year 
Produc- 
tion, 
United 
States 
Price 
adjusted 
for 
changes 
in price 
level i 
Value of 
product 
Year 
Produc- 
tion, 
United 
States 
Price 
adjusted 
for 
changes 
in price 
level i 
Value of 
product 
1902 
Million 
bushels 
1,053 
1,009 
1,090 
1,036 
Cents per 
bushel 
27 
27 
24 
25 
Million 
dollars 
284 
272 
262 
259 
1901 
Million 
bushels 
778 
869 
805 
851 
Cents per 
bushel 
36 
30 
35 
38 
Million 
dollars 
280 
1904 
1903 
261 
1905 
1907.. 
282 
1906 
1908 
323 
Total 
Total 
1,077 
1, 146 
1 Price divided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics index number of all commodities, base 1890-1899, con- 
verted to the crop year by averaging monthly relatives, July to June. See Wholesale Prices 1890 to 1913. 
U. S. Bur. Labor Statis. Bui. 149, 1914. 
APPLICATION TO A COOPERATIVE MARKETING PROBLEM 
The foregoing study suggests a possible method of stabilizing 
oat prices. For 50 years farmers' organizations in the United States 
have tried in a variety of ways, ranging from prohibition of future 
trading to monopoly control, to reduce the fluctuations in the prices 
of farm products. At the present time two of the chief purposes of 
the American Farm Bureau Federation are (1) to extend the cooper- 
ative marketing of farm products, and (2) so to estimate the effec- 
tive world supply of any farm product and so to regulate the flow 
to market as to eliminate sharp and extreme price fluctuations. 
During the period 1881 to 1913 the oat crops of the United States 
were above the trend of production 11 times, below the trend 14 
times, and about normal 6 times. There was no regularity in the 
sequence of large and small crops. Under the existing marketing 
system limited quantities of oats are carried from one crop year to 
the next. Carry-over figures 9 show that quantities consumed 
annually from 1896 to 1913 closely followed production and were 
not uniform from year to year. The question arises as to what 
would be the effect upon the gross value of oats if the surpluses from 
bounteous years were carried over to years in which the crop was 
small. 
The gross value of the oats consumed in the United States from 
1895 to 1913, on the basis of the December 1 farm price, was $5,964,- 
000, 000. 10 Assuming that price would have followed the trend of 
prices, 1895 to 1913, had the supply of oats put on the market been 
made to conform to the trend of production or consumption by 
carrying surpluses from years of overproduction to years of relative 
shortage, the most probable value of these crops is $6,135,000,000. 
The difference, or gain to the producers, is $171,000,000, or approxi- 
mately 9 cents a bushel for the carry over from surplus years. 
» See footnote 13, p. 11. 
i° See Table III, Appendix A, p. 29. 
