UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 
DEPARTMENT BULLETIN No. 1351 
Washington, D. C. 
September, 1925 
WHAT MAKES THE PRICE OF OATS 1 
By Hugh B. Killough 
Assistant Agricultural Statistician, Bureau of Agricultural Economics 
CONTENTS 
Page 
.Statement of toe problem 1 
Sources of d ata and scope of analysis 3 
Factors affecting annual price of oats 4 
Production and the area of the market 4 
Trend of prices of oats 
Comparison of the values of large and small 
crops 9 
Application to a cooperative marketing 
problem 10 
Multiple correlation of price factors 11 
Seasonal variations in oat prices 13 
Application of seasonal trend in estimating 
price _ 17 
September price as a basis for estimating. 18 
Discussion of method. 19 
Future prices and condition reports as price 
indicators 20 
Relation of future prices to cash prices 20 
Relation between crop condition estimates 
and production 21 
Conclusions regarding future prices 22 
A study of wheat prices 23 
Extent of wheat market and its influence on 
Chicago price...- 23 
Notes on method 25 
Appendix A.— Statistical tables 27 
Appendix B.— Selected references 38 
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM 
The market price of oats, like the prices of all other farm products, 
changes from year to year, season to season, month to month, and 
day to day. It is commonly recognized that these price changes are 
caused by changes in supply or demand, or both; but the general 
phrase " supply and demand" furnishes no precise explanation of 
given variations in price. A detailed study is necessary to define the 
supply, allocate the demand, and furnish quantitative measures of 
the influence of the various price-making forces. 
In recent years the application of statistical methods to economic 
problems has had remarkable development. Most of this develop- 
ment, however, in so far as it has been applied to forecasting the future, 
has been in the field of business statistics, and the problem of fore- 
casting the prices of the various agricultural products has been com- 
paratively neglected. The value of any method which would offer 
to the farmer or to the student of agricultural prices even an approxi- 
mate means of estimating future prices is evident. To the farmer, its 
most important use would be in determining the best time to sell his 
1 E. M. Daggit, Associate Agricultural Economist, gave valuable assistance in the preparation of this 
bulletin. 
47438°— 25f— Bull. 1351—1 
