99 
WHEAT  PRICES  AND  THE  WORLD’S 
PRODUCTION. 
The  trend  of  wheat  prices  in  Great  Britain  last  year,  when  the 
London  Gazette  recorded  averages  of  48s.  to  50s.  per  quarter  in 
many  markets  of  the  country,  has  once  again  drawn  public 
attention  to  the  question  of  our  wheat  supply.  The  problem 
of  feeding  the  population  of  this  country,  and  of  Europe 
generally,  has  for  many  years  lain  dormant  under  the  soothing 
influence  of  low  prices.  But  the  sharp  upward  movement 
which  occurred  last  spring  has  re-awakened  the  interest  and 
anxiety  of  the  public.  It  has  also  attracted  the  attention  of 
the  British  agriculturist,  but  in  a somewhat  different  way. 
The  prices  which  he  has  been  getting  during  the  last  two  years 
have  been  far  more  profitable  than  for  some  time  past,  and  he 
has  been  asking  himself  whether  wheat  is  once  more  to  resume 
its  position  as  the  dominant  agricultural  product  of  the  country, 
or  whether  the  brief  glimmer  of  prosperity  will  not  presently 
be  extinguished  in  a lasting  gloom  of  depression. 
Both  the  consumers  of  bread  and  the  producers  of  wheat 
are  uncertain  as  to  the  conclusions  to  be  drawn  from  last  year’s 
experience,  for  outside  trade  circles  people  are  inclined  to 
believe  that  the  rise  in  price  was  due  to  the  market  manipulation 
of  speculators,  and  not  to  a real  change  in  the  conditions  of  the 
world’s  supply.  Whether  the  rise  is  due  to  natural  causes,  or 
whether  it  is  only  an  artificial  disturbance  in  the  steady  flow  of 
prices,  is  a matter  of  fundamental  importance  to  both  the  buyer 
and  the  producer.  It  is  the  object  of  the  present  review  to 
throw  such  light  on  this  question  as  is  afforded  by  a study  of 
the  present  position  of  the  world’s  market,  and  of  the  steps  by 
which  modern  conditions  have  been  reached. 
At  the  present  day  more  than  four-fifths  of  all  the  bread 
consumed  in  this  country  is  made  of  corn  imported  from 
foreign  lands,  less  than  one-fifth  being  produced  at  home.  The 
British  farmer  is  thus  in  a position  in  which  the  market  for 
one  of  his  chief  products  is  determined  by  foreign  conditions. 
Such  a state  of  things  would  have  been  unbelievable  a hundred 
years  ago.  Even  so  late  as  1847  Porter  wrote  in  “ The  Progress 
of  the  Nation  ” as  follows  : — 
“ To  supply  the  United  Kingdom  with  the  single  article  of 
wheat  would  call  for  the  employment  of  more  than  twice  the 
amount  of  shipping  which  now  annually  enters  our  ports,  if, 
indeed,  it  would  be  possible  to  procure  the  grain  in  sufficient 
quantity.” 
Yet,  sixty  years  later,  not  only  do  we  import  a vastly  greater 
quantity  of  wheat  than  would  have  sufficed  for  the  whole 
H 2 
