110 
Wheat  Prices  and  the  World^s  Production. 
world.  It  must,  however,  be  remembered  that  a rising 
standard  of  comfort  only  means  a demand  for  wheat  in  its 
initial  stages.  When  the  peasant  or  poor  artisan,  who  formerly 
ate  rye,  begins  to  improve  his  economic  position  he  takes  to 
eating  wheaten  bread.  But  he  soon  gets  all  the  bread  he 
requires,  and  any  further  rise  in  his  income  simply  means  a 
greater  expenditure  on  meat  and  on  his  other  requirements. 
In  England,  for  example,  the  consumption  of  wheat  per  head 
can  hardly  be  expected  to  increase  much  more.  The  world’s 
demand  is,  in  fact,  not  an  insatiable  one. 
We  have,  however,  a long  way  to  travel  before  the  limit  is 
reached,  and,  meanwhile,  we  may  ask  what  are  the  prospects 
of  supply.  More,  perhaps,  than  half  the  wheat-sown  area  of 
the  world  yields  under  15  bushels  an  acre,  while  a large 
proportion  gives  under  10  bushels.  The  margin  between  such 
yields  and  that  of  over  30  bushels  obtained  in  this  country 
will,  no  doubt,  be  slowly  made  up  in  such  backward  countries 
as  Russia,  as  agricultural  knowledge  spreads  and  the  condition 
of  the  peasantry  improves.  In  such  countries  there  is  a latent 
capacity  for  enormously  greater  supplies  than  are  now  pro- 
duced ; it  only  needs  the  steady  pressure  of  demand  to  draw 
them  forth.  Other  such  sources  of  a suitable  supply  may  be 
found  in  South  America,  the  Canadian  North-West,  Siberia, 
and  other  parts  of  the  world,  though,  perhaps,  the  best,  and 
certainly  the  most  conveniently  situated  of  the  possible  wheat 
fields  of  the  world,  have  been  already  tapped.  Still,  the 
present  upward  tendency  of  prices  is  bringing  more  distant 
territories  within  range  of  the  market,  and  if  only  labour  can 
be  obtained  these  areas  will  add  very  rapidly  to  the  available 
supply.  Again,  the  discovery  of  wheat  that  will  ripen  in  the 
short  summer  of  northern  latitudes  would  add  to  the  result. 
These  considerations  lead  us  to  believe  that  although  the 
demand  is  increasing  at  a very  rapid  pace,  yet  there  is  ample 
provision  for  a long  time  to  come.  The  question  is  whether 
the  world’s  supply  will  respond  at  once  to  the  call  for  more 
wheat  ; and  the  experience  of  the  past  summer  suggests  that  it 
will,  and  that  the  big  margin  mentioned  above  will  fairly 
readily  be  brought  into  use.  If  this  view  is  correct,  future 
wheat  prices  may  be  expected  to  remain  steady,  as  in  the  past, 
but  at  a slightly  higher  level  than  in  the  later  decades  of  the 
nineteenth  century.  Some  inducement  must  be  offered  for 
the  spread  of  wheat  cultivation  ; but  with  such  inducement 
offered  the  response  may  be  expected  from  all  quarters  of  the 
world. 
W.  T.  Layton,  B.A.,  F.S.S. 
Caius  College, 
Cambridge. 
