1 . 
Title of Project: 
Mini-Assessment Contracts for Selected 
Future Environmental Problems 
2. Estimated Period of Performance: 6 Months 
3. Contract Officer: Dr. Morris Levin 
Office of Strategic Assessment £ 
Special Studies (OSASS) 
4. Background 
The Mini-assessment Program is one component of OSASS' overall 
1980 program for meeting its assigned responsibilities. The small- 
scale studies undertaken as part of this program are intended to 
provide OSASS sufficient information on potentially signficant future 
environmental problems and analytical requirements in futures research to 
support resource allocation and research priority decisions. Each 
mini-assessment project focuses on a potentially significant future 
environmental problem and is intended to produce a report summarizing 
the state-of-knowl edge concerning the problem, defining and scoping the 
problem in terms of its public health, public welfare and environmental 
policy implications and identifying major information/knowl edge gaps and 
inadequacies in analytical methods and techniques. 
As part of its FY 1980 program, OSASS wishes to have mini-assessments 
performed on eight topics, including: 
1. Agricultural uses of applied genetics and biotechnologies; 
and 
2. Industrial use of applied genetics and biotechnologies. 
The attached bibliography and description of our concerns is intended 
to guide the potential contractors. 
1. Applied Genetics: Industrial 
Numerous articles have indicated that the Pharmaceutical Industry 
is increasing its investment in the area of Applied Genetics and Bio- 
technology. Most major firms are either expanding existing departments 
or creating- new ones to enhance their competitive position. In addition, 
new corporations have been formed exclusively to exploit genetic engineering 
and a number of unrelated existing firms are entering the arena (Revlon, 
for example). 
These facts indicate the potential magnitude of the effect of 
genetic engineering on the Pharmaceutical Industry. However, given the 
extensive research effort (300-400 million dollars in 1980) and the 
range of projects being undertaken, there is little doubt that other 
industries will be affected. For example, non-pharmaceutical , genetically 
oriented researchers are examining more efficient means to produce 
ethanol, methanol, and citric acid and the use of biological scavengers 
to degrade toxic wastes, pesticides and oil spills. Within the health- 
science industry attention is focusing on production of hormones (insulin, 
human growth hormone, interferon) and according to some reports the status 
is now equivalent to that of the antibiotic industry about 35 years age. 
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