Dr. Donald S. Fredrickson 
May 16, 1978 
Page 3 
significant disagreement still exists over their values, the range of issues 
will have been narrowed and focused for further discussion. 
On another issues— the guidlines presently have a set of prohibited 
experiments such as the deliberate formation of recombinant DNAs contain- 
ing genes for the biosynthesis of potent toxins. I realize that a P4 laboratory 
is being established at Fort Detrick to perform experiments thought to have 
among the greatest potential for hazard. However, has anyone considered 
the use of what might be a P5 or P6 lab— the Space Shuttle? I have not evaluat- 
ed the economics, but NASA is looking for shuttle activites, and the proba- 
bility of any organism escaping from a space craft to contaminate the earth 
environment would appear as close to zero as obtainable. The only group 
at risk would be the astronauts, who are already at high risk. 
I urge you to consider analytical tools such as fault tree analysis or 
decision analysis for future decisions on recombinant DNA or other NIH 
activites. If you or others at the Institute are interested in pursuing analyses 
along any of these lines, I am certainly available to discuss them further. 
Thank you for your attention. 
Sincerely, 
David Lincoln 
Visiting Assistant Professor, 
Engineering and Public Policy 
DL:em 
[Appendix A — 318] 
