38 
servation, on' which Dr. Lowrance is in agreement with Dr. "Wilson, he 
pointed out that DNA recombinant research covers such a wide 
range of activities, and the long-range consequences of the research 
are so poorly understood that it is not possible to do more than 
speculate about probabilities of hypothesized events occurring. Where 
quantitative data of reasonable reliability are not available it is not 
possible to do more than speculate; and to convey the impression 
that an estimate of reliability can be obtained merely through mathe- 
matical manipulations does disservice to the concept of risk-benefit 
analysis. Dr. Lowrance indicated that formal risk-benefit analysis 
finds its best applications where the elements under analysis can be 
identified in parallel with real events in the world so that variation 
in the risk-benefit model can be compared to postulated variations 
in the real world. 
In order for some order to be brought to the examination of the 
DNA issue, it is important to set a good base line for accumulation of 
data. The acquisition of information should involve an evaluation of 
a large range of problems and include the input from a variety of 
disciplinary studies. Nucleic acid research is not defined well enough 
today to permit a ohe-time analysis. In summary, he would suggest a 
flexible interrelated analysis with a gradually evolving examination 
as information is made available. Dr. Lowrance would encourage 
society to set up voluntary restraints and mechanisms for institu- 
tional review to prevent improprieties. In his view, this examination 
has begun as evidenced by the responsible behavior of the scientific 
conimunity, its willingness to focus public attention upon the problem, 
and the involvement of many academic disciplines and public interest 
groups. 
Dr. Lowrance added several other points of interest during the 
discussipn of his testimony. As he indicated, DNA research will 
benefit only a very small group for a considerable period of time. 
These are tne researchers whose lives are invested in unraveling some 
of the fundamental problems of life. On the other hand, the public 
perception has been that this small area of research might possibly 
pose a risk to a large population or the entire environment. Because 
the research is international in scope, prohibitions on the research in 
the United States will not prevent any mishap should it occur in some 
other nation. Since the risks and benefits will ultimately affect 
the entire world, it is especially necessary to maintain an awareness 
of all developments so that proper analysis can be completed on a 
continuing basis as more information is made available. 
Dr. Michael 
Donald N. Michael, Institute for Social Research, University of 
Michigan expressed his agreement with the points of view presented 
by both Dr. Wilson and Dr. Lowrance. He highlighted, however, 
the need to place any risk-benefit analysis in the social setting in 
which the evaluation is being made. Social groups will interpret the 
analysis in different ways depending upon their value judgements of 
risk or benefit. In his opinion, the social setting has been changing at 
an accelerating rate and those who perceive a risk in some issue now 
insist on a greater role in making the final polic}’ decision about 
accepting or rejecting the activity related to that risk. Dr. Michael 
[Appendix B — 87] 
