233 
DR. DAVIS: I would rather not put such crystal ball assessments into 
numbers. I think I would feel rather uncomfortable with any numbers, but I 
would rather base it on what we know about the history of science, which is 
that almost any basic discovery cannot be predicted to have large valuable 
applications, but the totality of the basic discoveries that have been made 
in a variety of areas have produced all of the benefits that we now enjoy in 
medical and technological applications. It is confidence in the continu- 
ation of this process that I am building on rather than a pretense that I 
can take any one specific benefit and tell you what the probability is or how 
many years it will take to reach it. 
DR. FREDRICKSON: Dr. Sinsheimer. And then Dr. Gustafson. 
DR. SINSHEIMER: I seem to have a reflex to respond whenever Bernie 
talks. I am going to have to learn how to control it. 
(Laughter . ) 
While I agree with you, Bernie, that there is a cost to saying no, I 
really think that puts the shoe on the wrong foot. The whole tenor of our 
society is the other way around. The whole tenor of our society is that 
what can be done will be done. That is the prevailing line. It is just in 
the last few years, it seems to me, that people are beginning to question 
that at all. This is a feeble attempt at that. 
DR. DAVIS: I am not sure, Bob, that that applies very much to this 
situation, though. The tenor of our society certainly has involved a tech- 
nological imperative to which many scientists, I think, would be personally 
resistant, though they don't have control over applications, and if they 
tried to, that would probably destroy public confidence in their humility 
more than anything else I can imagine. So the notion that scientists some- 
how should decide what should and shouldn't be done, I think, in practice 
has to be excluded. 
It would be possible for anybody 
activity, technically, but scientists 
tance at all to the notion that they 
uniformly recognize that they are at 
I think John Tooze ' remarks last nigh 
can be done that are obviously harmfu 
prudent than other people, other than 
the uncertainties of the risks in thi 
prolonged discussion. 
to work with any amount of radi 
, as far as I know, have had no 
should accept regulations, becau 
risk and that the risks are very 
t are very pertinent, that when 
1, scientists aren't going to be 
an occasional madman. It is be 
s case that we are having so muc 
o- 
res is- 
se they 
real . 
th ings 
any less 
cause of 
h 
DR. FREDRICKSON: 
Dr. Gustafson. 
DR. GUSTAFSON: Mine 
logian in me every time I 
is not a serious comment, 
come to the NIH, but then 
I suppress the 
I hear the name 
theo- 
of God 
[ 437 ] 
