Ch. 1 — Summary: Issues and Options • 7 
class of molecules that control gene acti\ i- 
ty, are present in the body in only minute 
quantities. Now, for the first time, they can 
be recognized, isolated, characterized, and 
produced in cjuantity. 
The mere a\ ailahilit\’ of a pharmacologically 
acti\ e substance does not ensure its adoption in 
medical practice. E\en if it is shown to have 
therapeutic usefulness, it may not succeed in 
the market{)lace. 
The difficulty in predicting the economic im- 
pact is e.xemplified by interferon. If it is found to 
be broadly effecti\e against both \ iral diseases 
and cancers, sales would he in the tens of bil- 
lions of dollars annually. If its clinical effec- 
tiveness is found to be only against one or two 
\ iruses, sales would be significantly lower. 
.At the very least, even if there are no im- 
mediate medical uses for compounds produced 
by genetic engineering, their indirect impact on 
medical research is assured. For the first time, 
almost any biological phenomenon of medical 
interest can be e.xplored at the cellular level. 
These molecules are valuable tools for under- 
standing the anatomy and functions of cells. 
The knowledge gained may lead to the develop- 
ment of new therapies or preventive measures 
for diseases. 
The chemical industry 
FI.NDI.NGS 
The chemical industry's primary raw materi- 
al, petroleum, is now in limited supply. Coal is 
one appealing alternative; another is biomass, a 
renewable resource composed of plant and ani- 
mal material. 
Biomass has been transformed by fermenta- 
tion into organic chemicals like citric acid, etha- 
nol, and amino acids for decades. Other organic 
chemicals such as acetone, butanol, and fumaric 
acid were at one time made by fermentation un- 
til chemical production methods, combined 
with cheap oil and gas, proved to be more eco- 
nomical. In theory, most any industrial organic 
chemical can be produced by a biological proc- 
ess. 
Commercial fermentation using genetically 
engineered micro-organisms offers several ad- 
vantages over current chemical production 
technic|ues. 
• The use of renewable resources: stai’ches, 
sugars, cellulose, and other components of 
biomass can serve as the raw material for 
synthesizing organic chemicals. With prop- 
er agricultural management, biomass can 
assui'e a continuous renewable supply for 
the industry. 
• The use of physically milder conditions: 
chemical processes often reciuire high tem- 
peratures and extreme pressures. These 
conditions are energy intensive and pose a 
hazai'd in case of accidents. Biological proc- 
esses operate under milder conditions, 
which are compatible with living systems. 
• One-step production methods: micro-orga- 
nisms can carry out several steps in a syn- 
thetic process, eliminating the need for in- 
termediate steps of separation and puri- 
fication. 
• Decreased pollution: because biological 
processes are highly specific in the reac- 
tions they catalyze, they offer control over 
the products formed and decrease undesir- 
able side-products. As a result, they pro- 
duce fewer pollutants that require manage- 
ment and disposal. 
The impact of this technology will cut across 
the entire spectrum of chemical groups: plastics 
and resin materials, flavors and perfumes mate- 
rials, synthetic rubber, medicinal chemicals, 
pesticides, and the primary products from pe- 
troleum that serve as the raw materials for the 
synthesis of organic chemicals. Nevertheless, 
the specific products that will be affected in 
each group can only be chosen on a case-by-case 
basis, with the applicability of genetics de- 
pending on a variety of factors. Crude estimates 
of the expected economic impacts are in the bil- 
lions of dollars per year for dozens of chemicals 
within 20 years. 
INDUSTRY AND MANPOWER IMPACTS 
Although genetic engineering will develop 
new techniques for synthesizing many sub- 
stances, the direct displacement of any current 
industry seems doubtful. Genetic engineering 
should be considered simply another industrial 
tool. Industries will probably use genetic 
