Appendix I-B 
A Timetable for the Commercial 
Production of Compounds Using 
Genetically Engineered Micro- 
Organisms in Biotechnology 
ObJiH'tii’vs 
• I he esiimalion ut the |)ro|)oi tions of \ ai ioiis 
gi oups ot eommei'C'ial products and processes tor 
\\ hich recomhiiiant l)\ \ (rI)N \) technolog\’ could 
he a[)plicahle. 
• I lie construction of timetables to indicate [ilausi- 
hie se(|ut'iices of commercial de\elopments that 
would rt'sult from the application of rDN'A tech- 
nolof^N . 
Approaches 
The follow inj; fi\ e industries w ere e\ aluated; 
1. pharmaceutical. 
2 . agricultural. 
3. food. 
4. chemical, and 
v"S. energ\ . 
Ihe manufacturing processes that would result 
from the application of rD\.A technolog\' would be 
based on fermentation technologx'. Therefore, a set 
of parameters w as de\ eloped to ser\ e as a guide to 
assess the economics of applying fermentation tech- 
nolog\’ to the manufacture of products currently 
manufactured b\' other means. 
The chemical industry generates a large number 
of products that could be attributed to (and is in this 
study) the other four industries cited, this particular 
industry was focused on more closely than the 
others. The following factors were considered in 
constructing the timetables show ing the applicability 
of I'DN'.A tecbnologx': 
• the current state of the art of genetic engineer- 
ing: 
• the current economic limitations of fermenta- 
tion technology': 
• the length of time to progress from a laboratory 
process to the pilot plant to large-scale produc- 
tion: 
• the plant construction time; and 
• the Go\ ernment regulatory agency appro\ al re- 
(|uired (of the products and manufacturing 
processes, not of the rDNA technology per se). 
Sources of information 
W'hile much of the information compiled for this 
report was obtained from published sources, a con- 
siderable amount came from prior proprietary stud- 
ies performed by (ienex Corp. In the latter case, in- 
formation is used that is not proprietary, although 
the sources must remain confidential. In this connec- 
tion (iene.x has had numerous discussions with the 
technical and corporate management of more than 
100 large companies (generally multibillion dollar 
companies), concei'ning research interests, product 
lines, and market trends. Production costs are ex- 
trapolated for four fermentation plants of various 
sizes and capabilities. (See table l-B-1 .) 
A group of Genex scientists, consisting of a bio- 
chemical engineer, two organic chemists, a biochem- 
ist, and four molecular geneticists rated the feasibili- 
ty of devising micro-organisms to produce various 
chemicals in accordance with the fermentation con- 
ditions specified in table l-B-1. For those chemicals 
that appeared to be capable of being produced mi- 
crobiologically, dates were assigned for the times 
when the necessary technology would be achieved in 
the laboratory. By combining both technical and eco- 
nomic factors, it then became possible to project a 
timetable for commercial production. (See table 
l-B-2.) 
It should be emphasized that an extremely con- 
servative approach w'as taken in considering fermen- 
tation economics over the next 10 years. Only the rel- 
ativelv poor economics of conventional batch fer- 
mentation was considered. Immobilized cell proc- 
esses were projected to be 15 years away, and even 
then, the incremental cost savings projected (see 
table I-B-1) are lower than the incremental cost sav- 
ings currently obtained with immobilized cell proc- 
esses. The assumptions made here, however, did in- 
clude reasonably high product yields and highly effi- 
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