276 • Impacts of Applied Genetics — Micro-Organisms, Plants, and Animals 
Table Unit Cost Assumptions for the Production of Chemicals by 
Fermentation After Various Intervals of Time 
Earliest date 
(year) 
Size of plant 
(lb) 
Type of 
fernnentation 
Product yield 
(%) 
Annual c^ 
excluding 
precursor 
($ millions) 
Unit cost 
excluding 
precursor 
($/lb) 
Precursor 
Complete 
unit cost 
($/lb) 
5 
50 
Ordinary batch 
12 
23.5 
0.47 
Petrochemical^ 
0.66 
10 
100 
Ordinary batch 
40 
24.5 
0.25 
Petrochemical 
0.44 
15 
200 
Immobilized cells 
40 
25.5 
0.13 
Petrochemical 
0.32‘J 
20 
200 
Immobilized cells 
40 
25.5 
0.13 
Carbohydrate‘S 
0.24d 
^Annual costs for ordinary batch fermentation were estimated from proprietary data. Vaiues obtained for the immobiiized ceii exampies are computed at 31.2 percent 
beiow the comparabie vaiues for ordinary batch fermentation. 
^Average cost of petrochemicai equals $0.17/lb. At 90 percent conversion efficiency, cost contribution of petrochemical equals $0.19/lb of product. 
‘-Average cost of carbohydrate assumed at $0.04/lb of molasses or $0.02/lb of cellulose-containing pellets from biomass residue. For 50 percent free sugar content of 
molasses, cost of sugar equals $0.08/lb. At 70 percent conversion efficiency from the sugar, cost contribution of molasses equals $0.1 1/lb of product. For 50 percent 
cellulose content in the biomass pellets, cost of cellulose equals $0.04/lb. For 50 percent conversion efficiency to free sugar, followed by 70 percent conversion effi- 
ciency from the sugar, cost contribution of the pellets also equals $0.1 1/lb of product. 
‘^These unit costs may be further reduced to $0.26 and $0.17/lb., respectively, for products whose annual U.S. production currently exceeds 1 billion lb. Assumptions In- 
clude reduction in precursor cost by 20 percent (presumably because manufacturer controls supply of precursor); reduction in unit cost of immobilized cell process by 
13 percent (d) and 42 percent (e), respectively; maximum of 80 percent product yield (e); and a nearly 100 percent bioconversion efficiency from the petrochemical 
precursor. 
SOURCE: Genex Corp. 
Table 1-6-2.— Basis for Estimating the Timetable for 
Manufacture of Chemicals by Means of Microbial 
Processes 
Earliest date 
for commercial 
production^ is: 
If all the 
technology^ 
is achieved 
by: 
And if bulk 
selling prices's 
(in 1979 
dollars) equal 
or exceed: 
Assuming 
unit costs'^ (in 
1979 dollars) 
equal or 
exceed: 
5 years 
2 years 
$1. 32/lb 
$0.66/1 b 
10 
7 
0.88 
0.44 
15 
12 
0.64 (0.43) 
0.32 (0.26) 
20 
17 
0.48 (0.28) 
0.24 (0.17) 
®it is assumed that development of the appropriate manufacturing facilities 
begins at least 5 years prior to the onset of producfion. 
technology refers to both genetic and biochemical engineering. Technology 
would be achieved on demonstrating that the chemical could be biologically 
produced in the laboratory at commercially desirable yields and reaction effi- 
ciencies. 
‘-It is assumed that all bulk selling prices are marked up 100 percent from the 
corresponding unit costs, except for chemicals whose annual U.S. production 
currently exceeds 1 billion lb. In those cases the bulk selling prices (numbers 
in parentheses) are assumed to be marked up only 67 percent. 
‘^Unit costs were obtained from table l-B-1. See footnote of table l-B-1 for ex- 
planation of numbers in parentheses. 
SOURCE: Genex Corp. 
cient transformations of precursor to product, but 
nothing exceptional with respect to current fermen- 
tation technology. Indeed, high product yields and 
highly efficient reactions would he expected with 
genetically engineered micro-organisms. 
Two points should he stressed that place these 
projections on the low side. First, they exclude cer- 
tain groups of products, the end products of which 
could not be microbially processed, although their 
basic constituents could be produced microbiologi- 
cally (e.g., monomers of microbial origin could form 
chemically synthesized polymers). Second, the pro- 
jections exclude naturally occurring products of 
microbial origin, which could he efleclixc or su|)('ri- 
or substitutes for chemically synlhf'sized products 
that could not he manufactui f'd microhiologically. .\s 
examples, dyes of mici'ohial origin, such as pro- 
digiosin, might advantageously rf'place those synthe- 
sized chemically, hecausf' their toxicity is lower than 
their chemical counterp;irts. In tlu* case of plastics, a 
new generation of plastics of microbial origin, e,g., 
pullulans, would not have to he made from petro- 
chemical feedstocks and would he hiodegradahle. 
Explanation of tables 
Tables l-H-;t through I-M-;J2 pix'sent the compounds 
from two points of \ i('w , Tables l-ll-.i to Ml- 1 0 grouj) 
the compounds by industry suhgrouped h\ product 
catffgory. TahU's I-I5-It to l-lt-;i2 group the com- 
pounds by product category ii'respi'ctis e ot industr\ 
The tables hasf'd on industry present end use d.ita 
for each compound: e.g,, in the pharmaceutical in- 
dustry as|)irin is listf'd as an aromatic used .is an 
analgesic, w hereas in the chemical industrv .iniline is 
listed as an aromatic used as a cyclic intermedi.ite 
Thus, tlu' similarities and dillerf'iiees between com- 
pounds of similar origin, i.e., product e.itegory are 
re\ ealed. 
Thff tables based .solely on product e.itegoiw .ire 
dividf’d into two tyjies: one type |)ertaining to m.irket 
data (tal)l('s l-IMO, I I. and ihi* sul)s(‘(|U(*nt odd mim- 
herf'd ones through table l-H-.'l.'h, and the other jiei ■ 
taining to technical data Ithe e\en niimhered t.ihles 
from l-H-12 through I-I5-.52.) 
The market data were obtained both trom piih- 
lishf'd .sources and from prior pro|iriet.ir\ studies 
