[ 37 ° ] 
quodque folum, certa nitri figna pra?bere, fed plura 
concurrere debere, ut de vero nitro produdto dubium 
non relinquatur. 
LI I. An FJfay towards folving a Problem in 
the Doclrine of Chances. By the late Rev. 
Mr. Bayes, F. R. S. communicated by Mr. 
Price, in a Letter to John Canton, A. M. 
F. R. S. 
\ 
Dear Sir, 
Read Dec. 23, x - Now fend you an effay which I have 
1763 JL f° un ^ among the papers of our de- 
ceafed friend Mr. Bayes, and which, in my opinion, 
has great merit, and well deferves to be preierved. 
Experimental philofophy, you will find, is nearly in- 
terefled in the fubjedt of it; and on this account there 
feems to be particular reafon for thinking that a com- 
munication of it to the Royal Society cannot be im- 
proper. 
He had, you know, the honour of being a mem- 
ber of that illuftrious Society, and was much efteem- 
ed by many in it as a very able mathematician. In an 
introduction which he has writ to this Effay, he lays, 
that his delign at firft in thinking on the fubject of it 
was, to find out a method by which we might judge 
concerning the probability that an event has to hap- 
pen, in given circumftances, upon fuppofition that we 
know nothing concerning it but that, under the lame 
ci rcutn- 
