[ 409 ] 
fuppofed. — In other words. The firft experi- 
ment fuppofed to be ever made on any natural objedt 
would only inform us of one event that may follow a 
particular change in the circumftances of thofe objedts ; 
but it would not fugged; to us any ideas of uniformity 
in nature, or give us the lead: reafon to apprehend 
that it was, in that inftance or in any other, regular ra- 
ther than irregular in its operations. But if the fame 
event has followed without interruption in any one 
or more fublequent experiments, then fome degree 
of uniformity will be obferved ; reafon will be given 
to expedt the fame fuccefs in further experiments, and 
the calculations directed by the folution of this pro- 
blem may be made. 
One example here it will not be amifs to give. 
Let us imagine to ourfelves the cafe of aperfonjufl 
brought forth into this, world and left to colledt from 
his obfervation of the order and courfe of events what 
powers and caufes take place in it. The Sun would, 
probably, bethefird: objedt that would engage his atten- 
tion; but after lodng it the fird: night he would be en- 
tirely ignorant whether he fhould ever fee it again. He 
would therefore be in the condtion of aperfon making a 
hrb experiment about an event entirely unknown to 
him. But let him fee a fecond appearance or one 
return of the Sun, and an expedtation would be raifed 
in him of a fecond return, and he might know that 
there was an odds of 3 to i lovfome probability of this. 
This odds would increafe, as before reprefented, with 
the number of returns to which he was witnefs. 
But no finite number of returns would be fufiicient 
to produce abfolute or phyfieal certainty. For let it 
be fuppofed that he has feen it return at regular and 
ftated intervals a million of times. The conclufions 
5 this 
