448 
Fishery Bulletin 95(3), 1997 
Results 
Historical comparisons 
Management variable estimates from past stock as- 
sessments were generally consistent throughout 
most of the time series, except for the last two years 
of each assessment, when some historical estimates 
deviated from revised estimates from the 1995 
VPA (Fig. 1). Terminal estimates of age-1 abundance 
were greater than revised estimates for five assess- 
ments and less than revised estimates for three assess- 
ments, but positive historical differences (i.e. histori- 
cal estimate > revised estimate) were greater. For ex- 
Ol 
< 
E 
o 
cn 
93 « 4 
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 
5 2 
S i 
Year 
Retrospective lag 
(yr) 
Figure 1 
Comparison of historical estimates of Atlantic menhaden recruitment, spawning 
stock biomass, and percent maximum spawning potential. In the left charts, terminal years 
of historical stock assessments are labeled at the end of each series, overfishing thresholds 
are indicated by broken horizontal lines, and values in parentheses are not plotted. Conver- 
gence of estimates is illustrated by reduction in root mean square of historical differences 
over time in the charts on the right. 
