Cadrin and Vaughan: Virtual population analysis estimates for Atlantic menhaden stock assessment 
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ported here suggest large uncertainty in terminal 
estimates. Fredrick and Peterman (1995) simulated 
uncertainty in Atlantic menhaden VPA’s to show that 
much more conservative overfishing thresholds 
would be needed to incorporate high levels of 
uncertainty into risk-averse management decisions. 
An alternative to incorporating uncertainty adjust- 
ments is to make management decisions based on 
converged estimates that indicate conditions of two 
years earlier (AMAC, 1992). If more timely manage- 
ment is desirable, methods to calibrate terminal 
estimates of abundance are necessary. 
Acknowledgments 
We thank the entire Menhaden Team of the Beau- 
fort Laboratory for the regular collection and analysis 
of data from the Atlantic menhaden fishery. We are 
grateful to the menhaden plant owners and opera- 
tors who facilitated catch sampling. We are indebted 
to the Atlantic Menhaden Advisory Committee of the 
Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission 
and two anonymous reviewers for critiquing the 
manuscript. 
