354 BULLETIN OF THE UNITED STATES FISH COMMISSION. 
inspection of about 230,000 barrels. It also shows that the fishery has not, ou the 
whole, diminished in productiveness. We are therefore justified in assuming, though 
the hope may prove delusive, that the present period of scarcity will, like all similar 
ones in the past, be succeeded by a time of plenty. The conclusion follows that the 
evidence does not point to any necessary or immediate danger of the commercial 
extinction of the mackerel. 
This conclusion may be questioned, on the ground that the catch has held its own 
only through the increased efficacy of the methods employed. A careful study of 
the results which have followed some of the more important innovations does not 
lead to the acceptance of this objection. Many competent authorities have expressed 
the opinion, which is supported by an array of convincing evidence, that man can 
exert but little direct influence upon the numbers of those species of fishes which 
inhabit the open sea. Professor Baird, in writing of the bluefish, shows conclusively 
that the numbers of this fish have increased and decreased quite independently of the 
methods adopted by man for its capture, and that man exerts an indirect influence 
upon its movements in but one respect, namely, by decreasing, through excessive 
fishing, the available food supply which it derives from the shore fishes. The mackerel, 
owing to the character of its food, consisting of sand-eels, small Crustacea, and other 
forms not subject to man’s direct influence, would seem to be even more independent 
of the methods of the fisheries than is the bluefish. 
It may also be supposed that the greater or less quantities of fish annually cap- 
tured have been determined by the energy with which the mackerel industry has been 
pushed. That some of the smaller fluctuations have been due to this cause seems 
evident, from the fact that during certain years, when the average fares have remained 
about the same, the catch has been proportional to the number of vessels employed. 
It is, however, also evident, from the statistics bearing upon this point, that the num- 
ber and tonnage of vessels employed bear no constant relation to the quantity of fish 
captured. On the contrary, a very successful year has always stimulated greater 
interest, and has led to the employment, for several years thereafter, of an increasing 
number of vessels, while a year of marked failure has diverted vessels and men to 
other employments. This fact tends to overcome and obscure the evidence which the 
statistics convey of great and sudden movements in the body of mackerel. 
The problem is, however, only shifted. We may feel satisfied that there are no 
indications of the speedy exhaustion or material reduction of the mackerel supply; 
but the fact remains that there have been periods, sometimes extending over a number 
of years, during which the fishery has not paid the cost of operation. It becomes, 
therefore, extremely important that the cause or causes of these fluctuations should be 
determined, in order to obtain, if possible, a constant and uniform supply of the fish. 
It is manifestly just as important to the fishing as to the manufacturing interests that 
economical regulation of supply and demand should be accomplished. The great evil 
of the present state of affairs is uncertainty. Capital and labor are attracted or 
repelled by the appearance of conditions which can not at present be calculated upon 
beforehand, with a consequent loss in the long run to the fishermen and an increased 
price to be paid by the consumer. 
When the effective causes are fully known the remedy will be indicated; and 
should it prove to be one impossible of application, it may at least be possible to 
foretell the prospects of a season and thereby save those interested much disappoint- 
ment and loss. Many suggestions have been made to account for the fact. Of these 
we shall consider but four of the most important. 
