i88o.] 
The Sanitary Millennium. 703 
was 1 in 25, or 40 per thousand. In 1770 it had fallen to 1 
in 28, or 3571 per thousand, and in 1811 to 1 in 74, or 13*51 
per thousand. Here, then, is a distinct and rapid advance 
towards the much talked-of “ sanitary millennium, ’ -a de- 
crease of mortality to the extent of two-fifths ! Since that 
date most remarkable changes have been effedted. Medical 
science has improved, the condition of the people has been 
ameliorated, the hours of work in factories have been limited, 
vaccination, which, in 1811 was merely optional, has been 
rendered compulsory, and “ sanitary reform ” has been fully 
inaugurated. In all these benefits Manchester has partici- 
pated, and since about 1845-50 it has enjoyed the special 
advantage of an ample supply of water drawn from the 
unpeopled and uncultivated moorlands of north-west Derby- 
shire, where organic pollution seems out of the question. 
We might reasonably then expedt that the advance above 
mentioned would be sustained, and that the death-rate of the 
great cotton-city would have fallen to — at most 1 in 100 or 
10 per thousand. But alas ! in the ten years from 1851 to 
i860 inclusive the mortality has been 31 per thousand !* 
In other words, in spite of all our modern sanitary reforms, 
the death-rate has increased to more than double its amount 
in 1811. 
Hence we are again led to the conclusion that the reduc 
tion of mortality which characterised the latter half of the 
18th century and the beginning of the 19th is not due to 
modern science, to advancing civilisation, or to any human 
agency. From the evident impotence of “ sanitary reform 
to maintain the improvement which had taken place we are 
also warranted in questioning the soundness of the principles 
on which it is based. 
Amongst the diseases which had become less frequent and 
less severe, but which have since resumed an epidemic and 
highly dangerous character, a prominent place is due to 
small-pox, especially as its alleged preventive, vaccination, 
has taken rank among the political questions of the day. 
We are told that if this disease no longer carries off its 
vidtims by tens of thousands, as in the dark ages, the change 
is due to vaccination. But there can be not a shadow of 
doubt that small-pox had begun to decline long before the 
discovery of Jenner was introduced into practice. 
In 1722 Dr. Wagstaffe wrote that the mortality among 
children did not exceed 1 per cent, of the cases. From 1796 
* According to the returns of the Registrar-General (September 25th, 1880) 
it has been for the past week 27 per thousand. 
VOL. II. (THIRD SERIES.) 2Y 
