132 
Fishery Bulletin 1 10(1 ) 
shown in Table 6 and Figure 8. Starting from the 
spawning abundance time series model predictions of 
recruitment, compared with the recruitment values 
predicted by the VPA, the highest correlation resulted 
from the GLOBEC years (r=0.83) using the demersal 
juvenile mortality rate based on regression of previous 
year’s recruitment, although both methods produced 
similar results. The recruitment values predicted from 
both the GLOBEC and MARMAP years were nearly 
identical to the recruitment values predicted by the 
Table 4 
Coefficients of correlation (r) among haddock {Melano- 
grammus aeglefinus ) early life-stage abundances deter- 
mined from ichthyoplankton surveys and recruitment at 
age-1 based on virtual population analysis abundances 
for 1977-87 and 1995-99. Life-stage abundances were 
log 10 transformed. Correlations where P<0. 05 are starred. 
Life stage 
Eggs 
Larvae 
Pelagic 
juveniles 
Recruits 
age-1 
Eggs 
1.00 
Larvae 
0.18 
1.00 
Pelagic juveniles 
0.16 
0.66* 
1.00 
Recruits age-1 
0.31 
0.51* 
0.47 
1.00 
VPA, except for the years 1979, 1983, 1987, and 1996, 
where the life-stage model recruitment values were 
lower than the VPA recruitment values (Fig. 8A). Note 
there was no egg abundance data for 1977 and 1978. 
The hatching abundance models of predicted re- 
cruitment from the MARMAP years resulted in a high 
spurious correlation with the recruitment values pre- 
dicted by the VPA (not shown) due to the large 1978 
year class. After eliminating the 1978 recruitment 
values, the correlations were not significant, but bet- 
ter (r=0.45) with the demersal juvenile mortality rate 
based on regression of recruitment from the previous 
year (Fig. 8B). Correlation for the GLOBEC years was 
significant(r=0.89, R<0.05), but 1996 still was the most 
underestimated year compared to the recruitment esti- 
mated by the VPA. For both eggs and larvae, using the 
demersal juvenile rate based on regression of previous 
year’s recruitment provided a slightly better correlation. 
Starting from the seasonal egg abundance derived 
from the VPA SSB and using the variable egg and 
larval mortality proxies, we found very poor correla- 
tions for the full time series 1979-2004 (r=0.36) (Fig. 
8C) even after the very large 2003 year class recruit- 
ment values were deleted. There was essentially no 
predicted recruitment correlation for the MARMAP 
years (/'=— 0.16) and GLOBEC years (7'=-0.08). The two 
largest recruitment year classes in the time series, 1978 
and 2003, were underestimated by a factor of 4-6. The 
Table 5 
Correlations (r) between the various Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) life-stage model predictions of recruitment (R) and the cod 
virtual population analysis (VPA) for age-1 recruitment (R). Base case models start from either annual spawning abundance of 
eggs or hat ching abundance of larvae with life-stage mortality rates derived from Marine Resource Monitoring, Assessment, and 
Prediction (MARMAP) or U.S. Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics (GLOBEC) surveys. The third base case is the abundance of 
eggs derived from the VPA spawning stock biomass (SSB). The annual survey egg and larval mortality rates used for each model 
can be found in Table 1. For egg-and larval-stage mortality, a function of wind stress is designated as “f(W) Eq.” and refers to the 
equation number in the text. Pelagic juvenile mortality used a constant 6%/d for all models. The demersal juvenile mortality rate 
was determined by two methods: 1) Demersal juvenile mortality rate of 2.5%/d was used if that year was below mean recruitment 
( R) in the full time series 1978-2004 from previous year’s R _1 , or a mortality rate of 3.0%/d was used if that year was above mean 
R from previous year’s recruitment (<> mean R _1 ); 2) Demersal juvenile mortality used as a function of the previous year’s R 1 
from Equation 7 is designated as f (R _1 ) Eq. 7. Correlations (r) P< 0.05 are starred. Associated figures for some of the models are 
referred to in parentheses. 
Life stage 
Time series 
No. 
parameters 
Egg 
mortality 
Larval 
mortality 
Demersal 
juvenile mortality 
r 
r 2 
MARMAP 1979-87 
4 
Table 1 
Table 1 
<> Mean R _1 
0.66* 
0.44 
4 
Table 1 
Table 1 
f(R~ l ) Eq. 7 
0.76* 
0.58 
GLOBEC 1995-99 
4 
Table 1 
Table 1 
<> Mean R~ l 
0.94* 
0.88 
4 
Table 1 
Table 1 
f(R~ l ) Eq. 7 
0.94* 
0.88 
(Fig. 7A) 
MARMAP 1977-87 
3 
Table 1 
<> Mean R -1 
0.73* 
0.53 
3 
Table 1 
/•(R- 1 ) Eq. 7 
0.70* 
0.49 
GLOBEC 1995-99 
3 
Table 1 
<> Mean R -1 
0.93* 
0.86 
3 
Table 1 
/•(R- 1 ) Eq. 7 
0.93* 
0.86 
(Fig. 7B) 
MARMAP 
4 
f(W) Eq. 2 
f(W ) Eq. 4 
f(R~ 1 ) Eq. 7 
0.25 
0.06 
GLOBEC 
4 
f(W) Eq. 2 
f(W) Eq. 4 
f(R - 1 ) Eq. 7 
0.05 
0.002 
1978-2004 
4 
f(W) Eq. 2 
f(W) Eq. 4 
f(R~ l )Eq. 7 
0.37 
0.14 
(Fig. 7C) 
