58 
Fishery Bulletin 1 12(1) 
1.5 
1.0 
0.5 
0.0 
-0.5 
- 1.0 
-1.5 
- 2.0 
B 
h , 
$ 8 
■ -8 , 
1 
1 V 
: a jl 
* » «*, 
A 
3 A 
a® i 
& 
8 
* 
a 
* 
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 
•Ml (Base) OMIrU &M1B 
• M2 (Base) 
XM2N 
OM2rU 
XM2rUN 
AM2B 
AM2BN 
• Ml (Base) OMIrU AM1B 
• M2 (Base) 
XM2N 
OM2rU 
XM2rUN 
&M2B 
AM2BN 
•Ml (Base) OMIrU aMIB 
•M2 (Base) OM2rU AM2B 
XM2N XM2rUN AM2BN 
Figure 2 
Time series of standardized median residuals for (A and B) biomass, 1972-2008; (C and D) the 
National Marine Fisheries Service-Northeast Fisheries Science Center fall index, 1972-2008; 
and (E and F) the Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program fall index, 1990-2008 
derived for the Atlantic Croaker stock off the U.S. Atlantic coast by using Bayesian state-space 
biomass dynamic models: without minimum winter estuarine temperature, MWET (model 1, Ml; 
left panels), and with MWET (model 2, M2; right panels). Residuals relate to model base runs, 
Ml (Base) and M2 (Base), and to their sensitivity runs: in other words, Ml and M2 using the 
prior t/( 0.01,0.15) for the intrinsic rate of population increase r or the scaling parameter r o, 
MlrU and M2rU; and Ml and M2 including the southeastern (North Carolina-east Florida) 
shrimp trawl fishery bycatch, M1B and M2B. M2N, M2rUN, and M2BN are M2, M2rU, and M2B 
in which the prior for the coefficient controlling MWET effects was centered on zero with a preci- 
sion of 0.02. 
