Munyandorero: Climate effects on Micropogonias undulatus 
63 
B 
O 
CD 
(/) 
( f ) 
Q) 
O 
O 
dI 
o.o 
-0.5 
• • 
0.6 - 
• ♦ • 
• Observed 
• • 
• . 
“ — Predicted 
- 
0.4 - 
• 
• - - 95%BCI 
0.2 - 
* •• 
« • 
0.0 - 
* * " ♦ • ♦ 
^ . - * '• 
• 
-0.2 - 
• 
• 
♦ 
-0 4 - 
♦ 
• 
♦ 
♦ 
♦ 
1 
i 1 — 1 
-0 6 
—I 1 1 1 
-0.5 - 
— i 1 1 r 
-3 -2-10 1 
Normalized MWET 
D 
60 
40 
20 " 
-20 " 
F 
0.8 
0 6 - 
0 4 
0.2 
0.0 - 
- 0.2 - 
-1 0 1 
Normalized MWET 
Figure 5 
Relationships between the posterior medians of (A and B) process errors, (C and D) surplus 
production (SP), and (E and F) instantaneous surplus production (ISP) and the normalized 
minimum winter estuarine temperature, MWET. The process errors, SP, and ISP were gener- 
ated from the Bayesian state-space biomass dynamic model without MWET (model 1, Ml; 
left panels) and from Ml including the southeastern (North Carolina-east Florida) shrimp 
trawl fishery bycatch (right panels) for the Atlantic Croaker stock off the U.S. Atlantic coast, 
1972-2008. They were treated as observed data. Their fitting with simple linear regressions 
generated the predicted process errors, SP, and ISP. The insert in panel A shows the legend, 
including for the 95% Bayesian central intervals (95%BCI), common to all plots. 
