Fishery Bulletin 1 12(1) 
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Figure 6 
Time series of the predicted posterior medians (thick lines) with 95% central intervals (thin 
lines) of (A and B) the biomass ratio and (C and D) total harvest ratio; (E and F) plots of the 
overfished risk, P(B t /By[ sY<lb against the risk of overfishing, P(H t /Hy[ sy>1), for the Atlantic 
Croaker stock off the U.S. Atlantic coast. Various stock indicators were derived from Bayesian 
state-space biomass dynamic models without minimum winter estuarine temperature (model 1 
Ml; left panels) and from Ml including the southeastern (North Carolina-east Florida) shrimp 
trawl fishery bycatch (right panels). The horizontal thick line in panels A-D represents the 1:1 
ratio beyond which the stock was considered overfished or experiencing overfishing. In the bot- 
tom plots, black circles indicate high overfishing-overfished risks (1972, 1980, and 1993-2001), 
open circles represent low overfishing-overfished risks (1975-77 and 1984-86), and gray circles 
correspond to low overfishing risks-high overfished risks (other years). 
