THE RUSSIAN FUR-SEAL ISLANDS. 
105 
in wliich I found, or tliougiit 1 found, dilfereuces, but in the main I agreed, \vith one 
notable exception, however, viz, the estimation of the number of seals on the rookeries. 
Of eourse, his estimate related only to the Pribylof group, and as I knew the latter 
only from his description, I felt bound not to criticise him. But I became sure of 
this: riis methods and results did not apply to the Commander Islands. Elliott’s 
method was to ascertain the area of the rookeries in S({uare feet and then multiply this 
with a-n average tigure cahailated from the number of seals, large and small, counted 
on a certain ])iece of ground. But I fouud insurmountable obstacles. In the lirst 
place, the method re(piired not only a very detailed and accurate topograidiical survey 
on a large scale, of each rookery, but the calculation of the area presented an exceed- 
ingly difficult problem. jSTo two pieces of ground are alike. In some the beach is 
smooth and the seals are lying elose; others are covered with smaller or larger rocks 
and stones, where the seals lie scattered as a matter of necessity. In other places, 
again, there are open spaces or thin spaces. Then, again, the outlying rocks and reefs 
defy close calculation as to number and area. On Copper Island small herds of seals 
would be found in corners and coves, on ledges of cliffs, and under overhanging locks, 
sometimes entirely out of siglit and most times beyond computation. I found that 
every factor of the calculation Avould have to be estimated averages, and tliat these 
averages in their turn had to be founded upon estimated items; in short, that the 
whole calculation would have to be a product of guesses multiplied by guesses. As 
we have to deal with large figures, it is evident that a mistake in the estimated factors 
must result in disastrously great mistakes in the total number. 
Suppose, for instance, that I had “estimated” the area covered by the seals on 
both islands to be 4,000,000 sipiare feet. If I “estimated” the average ground covered 
by a seal (mother, pup, and bachelor) on the rookeries to be 2 square feet, 1 would obtain 
a total of 2,000,000 seals on the Commander Islands. But, on the other hand, if I 
guessed that on the average a seal, large and small, on the rookery occupies 5 S(juare 
feet — and. this would possibly have been more nearly correct — 1 would get only a 
total of 800,000 seals, large and small. iAccording to this method, various persons 
might estimate the number of seals on North Eookery, Bering Island, from 20,000 
to 120,000, and yet it might be impossible to convince any of them that they were 
mistaken. 
A numeration of the seals being utterly valueless unless accurate, or at least 
approximately accurate, I naturally regarded such an estimate of the number of seals 
on the rookeries not only as useless, but as dowmaght pernicious. Actual counting 
being impracticable, and an individual judgment of the number being about as value, 
jess as the above method of calculation, unless ac(iuired by a very long iiractice, I 
gave up all attempts at presenting figures. 
When, after twelve years, I again visited these rookeries the same question con- 
fronted me. In one place, where I had an unusually good opportunity, I tried to make 
an estimate of the average area occupied by a seal on that particular rookery. On 
July 10, watching the seals before me on Kishotchuoye Eookery, Bering Island, 1 wrote 
in my notebook as follows:. 
Here is a hareui right iu front of me, 1 sikatch, 16 matki, and abont as many jnips. They are 
lying as close together as about the average, and they easily cover a piece of ground 20 by 20 feet, 
400 square feet, or more than 11 stpiare feet per animal, pups and all. Ten square feet per animal for 
this rookery is, tlierefore, I think, a fair estimate. 
