February i, iSga.] 
THE TROPICAL AGRICULTURIST. 
577 
THE ESTIMATED CEVLON TEA CROPS 
OE 1892 A^’D 1893; WITH A OLA.NCE 
AHEAD AT A.D. 1900. 
A remonstrano'! ha? reached ua regarding onr 
inontlon ot 95, QUO, 000 o( pounds as the poasible 
yield of 1892 ; and wa may nt once aay that, writing 
hurriedly, we miscalculated. An ealimata of 
85,000,000 would bo the safer, but we should not 
ii# at all surprised to see a crop ot 90 000,000 
made up, in the shap'* of 89,000,000 exp Tied and 
one million consumed lo'^a’ly. Wa are told Ihat 
pur high figures are calculated to produce a panic, 
just as wa used to be told in the daya of advancing 
coffee crops that our sanguiaa figures, which generally 
turned out to ho correct, were inimical to the 
intoresbi of plaotora. Wo must say now, as ws 
ssid then, that our simple duty is to stale the 
truth as closely as the ciroumstaiioes and oonditinns 
Within our ken enable us to ascertain il. Mr. 
John Ferguson, in his able and exhaustive 
mview of the tea trade in the latest hsued 
Hireotory, wrote : “ But loo little has hitherto 
been made of the future production ot Ceylon. 
•Even we a year ago blamed a well known 
Colombo merchant for making known in the 
t^ity of London his opinion that in four or five 
Ceylon would bo exporting a hundred 
million pounds of tea 1 He is likely to prove a 
P'iuplist by present (August 1890) appraranoes." 
he wriwir of the above, who had so closely 
predioted the crops of 1890 and 1891 at 46 and 
. ” , millmns of pounds respeotively, and who 
an adduced dati o oonvinoing of the eon- 
,*'^’^®hco of increase.? by leaps and bounds 
r at least tho first five years of the pres nt 
eoade, seems to have recoiled from tho results 
Koiu liB had so oarofully colleoto 1, and 
nf r aliziition of the round figure 
01 100 millions of pounds to 1896. Looking at 
own stalemoots ot a quarter of a m llion of 
res under tea in 1893, of which a oonsiderable 
proportion wa, rapidly coming into fail bearing, 
hue muoh of tho old coffee lands wore yielding 
at i'l exoess of oaloul itions, — lioking also 
tnaki.f ““‘h®' advances made, year by year (while 
we n.rn , ^''^®hao for tho abnormal Hush of 1890), 
thu oonviotion that tho era of 
Tears must bo antedated by two 
and inn .., 11 *°*''’'®'® millions of pounds tor 1892 
o?th„ Noless than fifi.OOO acres 
ulantBi? ' million under tea in August 1890 were 
mnoi^^ ’• ®*‘®h<ling Horn July 1888, and 
beariniT this tta will oome into full 
nlaniB? while the area ot 181,000 acres 
matni-iiB^'^*^'^’^® "'ill havo roaohed full 
Mr TbU * 1 ?*^ ^ *'® yitldiug full returns. 
additiBB"'* "srghson's oaloulation was that the 
uudar Ib • b, ^*’® million of acres 
oi 6,000 * 
leavB B„i ®°/®®. annum. Those additions wo 
the viam ®”'* ItiliinK a laic average for 
are fn ^ '®°'‘.— Hi 9 returns from which 
in a vor*"® “>• P®' ®ore. "‘'i'® 
equal tn eansiderable number of oases they are 
sore tal Horn .500 to 1,000 lb. per 
at 400 fh ® wo say. whiohwe reckon 
beexLK:.i’''V“5®' 1““ hiillions will 
hi the onm careful rosearohea 
a ter ^‘^etory compRllel him, 
4001b ® ®>JwaDces, to r.oognize 
estim ? Ch'hhy- And olthough hi? revised 
&iv®®B^®‘’ "®^® almost ab 
ill Im forced to ooufesa ; “It 
bo seen that our esUmatei of a year ago 
for 1890 and 1891 were far below tho mark : iha 
present year has, in tact, in crop bearing exceeded 
11 1 expectations. It has shown that tea on old 
ooflso land, after six or seven years, yields far 
more loaf than was antieipatod.'' He accordingly 
revised his estimates to 63 millions lor 1891, which 
are almost exactly the figures in tho Chamber of 
Commerce return. With oommendable caution he 
gave 80 millions for 1892 and 90 millions for 
1893. Our cstimatoa therefore, of 85 millions for 1892 
and the round 100 millions for 1803, aro not, wo sub- 
mit, considering all the ciroumstancos, extravagant. 
Of course, cur estimates might be somewhat 
affeotod by the extensive or universal adoption 
cf finer pluuking than now provails ; but supposing 
ihcie is no material change in this respect let us 
ECO what inferences wo ore justified in deduoing 
for the future from tho experience of the imme- 
diate past. Wo havo shown that tho rate of 
increase in our crops is not at all likely to 
diminish up to 1893. What have the rates been 
since 1884 when our exports (we take tho customs 
fi.gures,) reached 2,392,006 lb. ? Next year the export 
verj nearly doublsd, the figures being 4,872,000. 
This was an inorease of very nearly 60 per cent. 
The inorease to 7,819,000 lb. in 1876 was not so 
great. Then oamo an inorease nearly at the same 
rate, the figures for 1887 bHog 13,834,000 lb. 
Then came a diminished rate of increase, tho 
figures for 1888 being 23,820,000 lb, an exoess 
of 10 millions over the previous year. A some- 
what larger rale of inorease marked 1889, the 
figures being 34.345,000, an inorease of lOJ millions. 
There whs a still larger advance in 1890, to 
46,790,000 lb, an increase of nearly 11^ millions. 
Finaily the figures rose to 67,000.000 in 1891, an 
inorease over tho previous year of no less than 
19 millions. Conceding that this latter cave is 
exo'ptional, and t.king 16 millions as tho rale 
of increase for this year an I the next, respectively, 
wo get total crops 
For 1892 82,0f0,000 lb 
1833 97,000,000. „ 
An annual increase of 16 millions on tho much 
higher figures is so much luwer a porcmtitga 
than previous inoroases of 10 and 11 millions 
ou the sm liter quantities of previous years, 
that we suspeot the increases will really be 
greater and fully muko up our revised eetimatvs 
of 85 millions for the present year and 100 millions 
for 1893. If readers admit, as we think they 
uniet, that our estimates are founded on indisputable 
evidence, oonneoted «ilh spsoially favourable 
oonditions of soil and olimate which are as likely 
to bo operative in the immediate future as they 
have b.eu in the immediate past, tho strongest 
possible case will be made out not only for con- 
tinuing but for indefinitely extending the efforts 
made to open new markets lor our teas. 
We have shown reasons lor expecting a largely 
inoreamd production lliia year and the next in the 
fact of the whole 2.50,000 acres under tea in August 
1890 attaining maturity and full or nearly full 
boariog in tho oourso of the two years. lii years 
Bubsequ-nt to 1893, we have reason to look for a 
oonsidsrably diminished rate of ioorease say to 
about 7 millions per annum, wbioh would make 
tho export of Ceylon tea as nearly as possible 150 
millions in the last y. ur of ibis nieeteenth century, 
(So muoh will depend on oontinued and expanded 
demand at roinuuerativo prices. .Such conditions 
grunted, we believe our figures represent tho very 
minima of results. — if our reasoning is wrong let 
iho tulUoicB be pointed oot, but there is no ueo 
iu.shiitting ouc eyes to the iuevitable effects on tea 
ot our specially forcing climate and fairly fertile toil 
It our vatioinationa ate fulfilled, and a crop ot 10(j 
