THE TROPICAL AQRiOULTURIST, [Mat 2, 1892. 
of thfi maltitude of oooDsellors and prophets anxions 
to serve as guides to the would-be investor renders it 
exceedingly difficult for that over-protected individual 
to judge the merits of each one, especially as the 
advisers seldom agree in their opinions, or even 
in their facta. A remarkable instance of this 
Want of ^ agreement is shown in three expressions 
of opinion on the prospective supply of cin- 
chona which reach us almost simnltaneonsly from 
different sources. The writers are all practiosl plan- 
ters and anxions, apparently, to state what they 
conceive to be truth. One, Baron v. Rosenberg, of 
Oevioolom, Madras, addresses the editor of this journal ; 
another, Mr. Anton Kessler, of Garoet, Java, writes 
to a planter friend in Ceylon, who has handed the 
letter to the “Ceylon Times;” and the last, Mr. 
Winning, a well-known Duteb-Indian cinobona au- 
thority, contributes an article to a review publishrdiu 
Java. These three authorities, each, it would seem 
unaware of the olber'a inieDtione, were moved to 
write their impressions about six weeks ago. Mr. 
Winning, among a number of other statements, opines 
that In 1862 Java will ship 3,300,000 kilos. ; in 1893, 
3,500,000 kilos. ; and in 1894, 3,800,000 kilos, of bark 
— the highest of these flgures being below her ship- 
ments of 1891 ; and bo proceeds to build up elaborate 
calculations upon the sssumption that the average 
quinine percentage of the Java bark will remain 
stationary at 4 per cent. Continuing bis argument 
upon these lines, Mr. Wiuning comes to the con- 
oluaion that we are at this moment faced by au 
output of quinine insufliciout for the world’s require- 
ments, his estimates of the total quinine produc- 
tion from all snnrcaa being:— For 1892, 220,500 kilns.; 
lor 1893, 225,500 kilos, ; and for 1894, 228,500 
kilos. Mr. Winning's figures have been promptly 
seized by quinine manufacturers and others for oom- 
meroial purposes ; and it is to be hoped, for the sako 
of those who may become victims to their allurcmoots, 
that they will pan out aright. 
Then oomes Baron v. Rosenberg, who, in tbo letter to 
which we have referred, takes credit, more in sorrow 
than in anger, for having prophesied truth four years 
ago, though his truths were of such evil purport that 
no one would listen to thorn. The Dutchman, Mr. 
Kessler, too, lifts his voice as an unappreciated Cas- 
sandra- Listen to bis admonitions to his planting 
friend in Ceylon : — 
“ You have left cinoboua aud tun across to ten. I 
think you were right, for oinchona is lookiug very 
like a wreokj aud may prove one even if Java be left 
alone with it. You may recollect that I prophesied 
iu 1887 what we are now experienoing. Your people 
did not believe mo, aud some of them may have 
thought I wai “doiug them.'' But I knew 1 was not 
and advised your people to root up their cinchona 
when the unit was at 4d ; they must now own that 
I gave them good advice.” 
“And what will the future be? Our bark in Java 
average now from 4 to 4^ per cenL aud will average 
about twice as much some years hence, for wo are 
doiug our best to ouitivate bigb-class barks. We export 
6i million kilos now, and will go on increasing ; you 
may calculate for yoursell what this means,' Very 
little is heard of estates that will ho abmdoned. 
though there are some, and most estates evunot culti- 
vate any other produce well on account of their situ- 
ation, the restrictions of their lease, or bcoBU,e their 
shareholders do not eare to embark into somothiog 
new which might swallow mure money in case of failure. 
So moat people atick to the old thing in hopes of 
killing out their weaker neigbbonrs or that bettor times 
may some. I myself doubted of their early advent, 
and tooted up 300 acres, which is now under coffee. ' 
So far Mr. Kess'er, It will be seen at once that 
be and Mr. Winning cannot both bo correct, and 
Baron v. Rosenberg is more or lets at iseue with the 
two. One comfort is that, though utterly at vsrituce 
as rcgerJstbo future, "I told you so,” is the harmouioiH 
burden of their songs whore they treat of the past. 
Baron v, Rosenberg thinks that a largo proportion 
of the Java bark is below the paying point of rioh- 
ness, and be infers that the poorer plantations in the 
island must be in process of uprooting if they have 
not already ceased to exist. Xjpun this point Mr. 
Kessler oontradiota him flatly, and even goes eo far 
as to asart, that in a few years Java bark will 
average 8 to 9 per cent, of quinine, while the quantity 
shipped, weight for weight, will go on increasing also. 
This statement is in accord with the reports from 
our Amsterdam correspondent which we published 
over lour years ago. While we are oalliug attention 
to the various disciples of Old Moore who are rais- 
ing their voices at this mcment, it may not be out 
of place to recall the fact that we too, iu a modest 
way, have ooossiouslly ventured upon a bit of horo- 
scope-casting. On December 17th, 1887, we wrote, in 
commenting upon the statement of our Amsterdam 
correspondent that orders fer the planting of 300,000 
exceptionally rich trees had been sent to Java : — 
“ It is quite possible that within a couple of years 
Java will absolutely dominate the cinchona market 
....Oeylnn planters will do well, therefore, to ask 
tbemselyes seriously whether they have any prospoot 
of holding their own against such competition as., 
is looming near at band.’’ 
But to return to the three ” planting prophets.” 
Baron v, Rosenberg, when recently in Ceylon, was 
assured that if every tree iu that island were up- 
rooted perhaps 3,000,000 lb. of bark might be crop, 
ped, with which the produotion wonld be finished 
entirely. If that statement be true, all the Ceylon 
authorities and most of the leading London importers 
and brokers are hopelessly at sea in their estimates. 
Baron v. Uosonberg believes that Ceylon aud India 
“ will both again deoreaso their shipments this year.” 
So far as India is ooncerned, that view also is not ao- 
oepU'd by the leading representatives of the oinchona 
industry in Loudon, though probably uur correspondent, 
who is an Indian planter himself, has better means of 
ju Iging on this point (lian others. 
In the fsoe of all the.se enntradioto-y opinions the 
wisest oouise would seem to be — let the future take 
cate of itself; butthstisa course which will certainly 
not be reoeivod with approbation by the large majority 
of those who spend a groat part of their days in cal- 
culating, from imperfect dats, the chances of a rise or 
fall in the quinine market. 
Prophete rechts,Prophete links 
Das Wcitkiud in der Mitten, 
says Goethe. The unfortnna'e world-child who hap- 
pens to be financially intere-'i- 1 in barker quinine is 
tormented by the doubt which of the rival prophets he 
shall follow ; and, needless tv say, bis choice talL, in 
almost every csss, upon the one whose views coincide 
most nearly with his own hopes of gain. Tbongh no 
one can compute even approximately the aum lo'al of 
brain-power spent upon vain calculations of what the 
future holds iu its lap, two things are to’rrabiy certain : 
first, that the energy misspent upon such calculations, 
if directed to the solution of any problem likely to 
a Ivacce the intorests of mankind, would bring lusting 
renowu to the roath"maticiaas engaged in it ; secondly, 
that if, peradventure, the hvpcs audestim.tea of au^ 
speculator ahonid be realised to the full, that indivi- 
dual, instead of preparing to enjoy at eaae tbo fruits of 
his foresight, will immediately cummeuce to worry his 
ennl afreafa, and to destroy the remnants of Ins digestive 
organs with a new set of caloulstions nbout what is t> 
happen five or six years further ahead, and risk bis 
money upon the realisation of that fresh set of cal- 
culations . — Chemist and Druggist, Feb. 20th. 
MORE FACTS ABOUT PRECIOUS STONES. 
The following is from the American Exporter, 
We seem to have missed the first article referred 
to. but it will probvbly turn up; — 
Jiast month we considered briefly the constitution 
and value of tho fonr loading ornamental geine, viz., 
the diamond, tho ruby, the sapphire and the emerald; 
and we noticed in paesing, also, a few Htonos of tho 
chn'soberyl family, allied to tho emerald or beryl group. 
We have now to consider tlie Bubordiiiato gems, of 
the second and tliird clasHos, and first let us cmi- 
