of being tapped during the next three or four years possess a very 
valuable adjunct to their tea or their coconuts goes without saying, 
but what we should all like to know is what range of prices are 
likely to be ruling, say, six years hence, when the rubber now being 
extensively planted in the Straits, in India, and in Ceylon, comes 
gradually into bearing. So far as one can see there is no likelihood 
of any great reduction in price. The demands of the markets of 
the world, even at the high prices now ruling, are ever on the in- 
crease, and so far have been almost entirely met by a supply of 
coarsely cured wild rubber. What we have, therefore, to consider 
is this— to what extent will supplies of cultivated rubber affect the 
market .six and eight years hence when all the rubber now planted 
in British India and the Straits comes into bearing. Hitherto, 
no very reliable estimates have been framed as to the extent of the 
area now under rubber, but about 4,000,000 trees were supposed 
to be put out in Ceylon by the middle of last year. This is of itself 
no very large quantity, when it is remembered that the total con- 
sumption of the world is estimated at about cvvts. 1,250,000. But 
although that is a very large quantity of rubber, it is well to point 
out that it represents- only 1 lb. per annum from 140,000,000 
trees— or 2 lbs. per tree from 400,000 acres at 1 75 trees to the acre. 
This is a vast quantity, undoubtedly, but it is not so very over- 
whelming. Many, many years must elapse, no doubt, before any- 
thing like this quantity of rubber is produced from cultivated areas, 
but it is well to have the position brought into proper perspective. 
Tor some years to come no appreciable effect is likely to be pro- 
duced upon prices by cultivated rubber, so far as we can see; but 
it is of course, only a question of time. With continued expansion 
of the area under this valuable product, the production will steadily 
increase, and tend hereafter to depress prices, and for this all 
careful men should be prepared. For ourselves we are inclined to 
think that the area in the island thoroughly suited for the produc- 
tion of Para rubber is not so unlimited" as some people seem to 
imagine. Whether this be so or not we are still far from possessing 
an area under cultivation in rubber likely to influence prices ad- 
versely. But, with extensions in other parts of British India 
rapidly proceeding, the day must come when the markets of the 
world are affected. And this fact should not be lost sight of. 
The present price of 4^. and 5^. a lb. cannot last for ever, but there 
is this undoubted safeguard — that cultivated rubber, when available 
in any appreciable quantity, will always displace an equal amount 
of the uncultivated product. The latter costs much to collect, and 
any substantia! fall in price would inevitably drive it out ol the 
market at once, leaving space ior vast supplies of the better prepared 
and purer product of British India and the Straits. 
From the “ Times of Ceylon . r 
Thursday , March 3rd, 1)04. 
