8 
Transactions Texas Academy of Science. 
the past and the observation of the present stage of onr social develop- 
ment bring before ns. 
The only refuge in such a juncture seems to be in the apparently 
paradoxical assumption that social organisms, though consisting of such 
marvelously complex elements, are yet subject to many laws that admit 
of a comparatively simple and therefore intelligible statement. Unless, 
indeed, this be so we can never hope to have a. science dealing with even 
partial phases of social development. 
That such an hypothesis is not really paradoxical, is, I think, largely 
in the nature of an assumption or axiom by which is merely meant a gen- 
eral principle conditioning all other hypotheses, and one which is. sug- 
gested by our experience. That the paradox is only apparent and to 
clarify our notions we may borrow a familiar illustration ’from the 
kinetic theory of gases. According to this theory a gas is to be regarded 
as consisting of a large number of molecules flying about at comparatively 
high rates of speed in every direction, impinging on each other and on the 
sides of the vessel in which the gas is contained. Now, while 
we have here a highly complicated state of things looked at from 
the standpoint of the individual molecule, and one of which it 
might at first glance seem impossible to predicate any very simple laws, 
yet it is found that for a given temperature the pressure of this gas is 
proportional to the space it occupies; such a gas has other properties 
capable of equally simple expression. We have here what may be called 
a statistical effect, where many complex agencies combine to produce an 
effect which may be formulated in a simple law. A large and important 
part of modern physics and physical chemistry has to do with statistical 
effects of this sort which admit of simple and easy description. It is 
not, of course, claimed that these physical laws are perfectly exact. Even 
if they were we could never find it out, for all our measurement of veri- 
fication are only accurate to within the limits of instrumental errors. 
Now the thesis I wish to maintain is precisely this : that the problem 
we are considering, demands for its successful treatment not only a de- 
velopment of the theory of statistics, but a suitable formulation of the 
fundamental elements or co-ordinates which characterize a given phase of 
the changing organism. 
The difficulties in the way of such a formulation are unquestionably 
great, but already the progress in the domain of vital statistics is con- 
siderable, and the economists have made no small progress in applying 
these methods to the mechanism of exchange and the theory o^ values. 
It would not be going too far to say that the essence of the modern his- 
torical method is statistical; an attempt is made to determine racial or 
national tendencies by a method of weighted averages. The great dif- 
ficulty being the determination of the proper weight to assign to any par- 
