'THE DEVELOPMENT OF METEOROLOGY. 29 
been the same in all ages, among all nations, and in almost 
all individual cases. One individual, or one nation, or one 
age may differ from another in its predilections for special 
methods, but in general we find everywhere analogous meth- 
ods of thought and work, and they even succeed each other 
in the same order. Beginning with explorations and crude 
observations, man passes on to generalizations and induc- 
tions. If possible he frames speculations or working hypoth- 
eses as to the ultimate cause or the rationale of any phenom- 
enon, and then tests his tentative deductions by experimenta- 
tion until the working hypothesis has been so modified as to 
represent some general law. The association of several such 
laws leads to the building up of elaborate deductive theories, 
not speculations in the popular sense of the word, but well- 
established systems, or methods of argumentation, that rep- 
resent a rational and more or less profound knowledge of 
nature. Such “theories” are well exemplified by Gauss’s 
“Theoria Motus” or Rayleigh’s “Theory of Sound.” 
If at some epoch a man or a nation is unable to apply 
anv one of the above-mentioned methods of studv, then the 
real knowledge of nature stops at that point, and man waits 
until the development of his powers enables him to take the 
next step in the line of research. But it has many times 
occurred that meanwhile men have spent centuries flounder- 
ing about aimlessly in the bogs of ignorance, following some 
imaginary light like the will-o’-the-wisp. If dogmatic au- 
thority has sometimes hindered the progress of knowledge, 
still more has man’s inherent conservatism, by reason of 
which he adheres to the teachings of antiquity, the practice 
of his parents, and the worship of his ancestors. Such con- 
servatism may build up a family or a nation ; it may insure 
the entailment of estates and the power of tyrants, but it is 
a perversion of the commandment “Honor thy father and 
thy mother” to doggedly insist that what is good enough for 
the parent is good enough for the children. The love of 
truth requires us not only to hold fast that which is good, 
but to discard that which is false. The path of progress in 
meteorology is strewn with the wrecks of popular errors. 
